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<br />o l)l1i;58 <br /> <br />High Plains Study <br />Page six <br /> <br />The preliminary set of: projections to be delivered to the general contractor <br />will be a business as usual baseline alternative development strategy, The <br />strategy includes the following considerations " <br /> <br />1 No new plllllic action or deliberate cllo11ge ill statutes, policies, or <br />programs at the state or federal level <br /> <br />2 Conti.nuation of current policies, programs, nncl trends in wHter and <br />agricultural management in both public and private sect:ors <br /> <br />3 Changes in management practices as made necessary by economic trends <br />and by current policies and programs, <br /> <br />The techniques and models used for the b'lSeline proj ec tions wjJl contain the <br />fJ.exibility to make revised projeceiollS in light of tile assumptions and policies <br />involved in the alternative development strategies. These alternative strategies <br />will be analyzed after submission of tile baseline forecasts. Since tIle final. <br />strategies have not been formalized and the period for analysis is May 1980 <br />to October 1981 for this phase, OEe will perform the necessary analysis within <br />the constraints of time and hudgl~t. OEe I:CSCrVCB the r.i.t.~ht 1:0 request i1dclitJOIl~IJ. <br />funding to complete the analysis of altert~ative strategies. <br /> <br />Energy consumption forc<'.Clsts will be made for the rollm..JLng sectors: residential, <br />commercial, industrial, transportation, utility and ngricult\.lt'c. Th(~ traDsport:Jt:lon <br />and ngriculture sectors could be further disaggregrtted. The fuel types undel~ <br />analysis will include: petroleum products (g3so1ine, diesel, etc.), naturt1.1 gas, <br />coal, eJectric power, and 1.-1' gas (propane) butane, et<:.). <br /> <br />Demand Datu <br /> <br />Projections will be made using energy fm:ecasting modeling techniques. The <br />preliminary phase of the project will be to review available models and select <br />those most applIcable to the overall demand modeling needs of the state, The <br />High Plains Study will serve as a prototype of the model chosen, Documentation will <br />be includcd in tIle final report of the models used, data sources) assumptions, <br />and other analysis te.chni.ques used. This lnitial pl1<:lSC will also include a review <br />of available data from state and federal sources. <br /> <br />In the design phase of the forecasting technique, the sub-region level of analysis <br />will be chosen, ^ review of: available data will determine if: a county level oE <br />disaggregation will be possible, Proje~tions will be made only for t:he Ogallala <br />area, and not statewide as requested by the general contractor, Expansion to <br />statewide analysis "ould be beyond reasonable time and budgetary constrai,nts, <br /> <br />Projections w111 be based on historical trend. A ten year data base would be <br />desirable, Data avai,labilty and cost will be the determining factors. <br />