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<br />000222 <br /> <br />12 <br /> <br />further refinement of the subsequent model s, Continued input from engineer- <br />ing and agronomist consultants would be necessary in addition to the <br />economi s ts, <br />Approximately 125 distinct models will be required to meet the work <br />plan requirements proposed by HPA, assuming one model for each of five <br />sub-areas for each of five time periods for each of five policy strategies <br />(5 x 5 x 5 = 125), For each of these model s a number of sol utions may be <br />necessary, since it appears desirable to test the sensitivity of results <br />to alternative assumptions concerning commodity prices, energy costs and <br />production technology, <br />Further, it appears that the analysis of repayment capacity called for <br />in A-1.10 will require an alternative formulation of the model s from that <br />which will predict ground water demand, The definition of "benefits" for <br />a publicly financed water supply project will differ from the net return <br />posited in the projection models. (The main problem is that the suggested <br />measure of economic surplus in the current project plan measures a return <br />to land, water and management, rather than to water alone, Accordingly, <br />sub-tasks A-l,9 and A-1,10 are revised in this work plan,) <br /> <br />B. <br /> <br />Personnel and Time Requirements <br />1. Duration 8,0 months (September 1, 1979-April 30,1980), <br />2, Personnel <br /> <br />(a) Senior agricultural economist, 2,0 months, <br />(b) Junior agricultural economist, 5.0 months, <br />(c) Agronomist, 0,5 months. <br />(d) Engineer, 0.5 months, <br />(e) Research assistants, 5,0 months, <br /> <br />~--~ - <br />