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<br />000221 <br /> <br />11 <br /> <br />ELEMENT TASKS A-I ,7 AND A-I ,8: DETAILED FORMULATION AND TESTING <br />OF MODELS FOR YEARS 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 <br /> <br />A, Description of Sub-task <br />This task involves bringing together the conceptualization and projec- <br />tions decided upon in tasks A-l,l to A-l.6 and collecting additional data <br />needed to formulate models representing each of the decades and scenarios in <br />the projection. <br />The first stage in the sub-task would involve detailed data collection <br />regarding current farm sizes, productivity, production technology, etr:., in <br />each of the study sub-areas. Data are to be collected from farmers, sellers <br />of agricultural inputs, buyers of agricultural outputs (including energy <br />sources, pump and irrigation system sales, etc,) by direct survey, Much <br />of these data would be used in the A-I,ll analyses in addition to A-l,9 and <br />A-l.IO. Approximately three months of time each from research associates <br />and research ass'istants would be devoted to primary data collection, <br />The next stage of this sub-task waul d invol ve final izing a model based <br />on 1978 data and verifying its predictions against observed response for <br />that year. After initial parameterization and debugging, adjustments in <br />constraints and matrix coefficients would be made until an acceptable degree <br />of accuracy is reached. <br />Coincident with the prel iminary stage model development woul d be the <br />process of developing the coefficients and constraints for future time <br />periods, Experience with the base year model may provide the basis for <br />