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<br />001092 <br /> <br />Draft - 9/81 <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />3. In certain counties the basic employment figure is <br />doubled to reflect "policy interventions" according to phasing <br />which is specified. The counties in which Policy Interventions <br />are assumed are Baca, Bent, Delta, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, <br />Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Montrose, Otero, Prowers and Rio <br />Blanco. For example, energy development in Delta County is pro- <br />jected to result. in total employment of 4,000 by 1989 instead of <br />the basic projection of 2,000. These infiuences will be identi- <br />fied in the individual discussion of the regions which follows. <br />4. A figure for exogenous workers, those who reside outside <br />of the county but work within it, is then subtracted. <br />5. A figure for exogenous persons (e.g., college students <br />or institutionalized persons) is added. <br />In the words of the report, "The medium series variables <br />were selected as the central trends to result in the most likely <br />single projection value. The high and low projected variables <br />have been selected and combined in the orders shown to give what <br /> <br /> <br />has been estimated to be a 50 percent confidence interval between <br /> <br /> <br />the low and high values of each county's population series." <br /> <br /> <br />(Colorado Division of Planning, 1979, p. 3.1 <br /> <br /> <br />The report contains the following discussion of the meaning <br />of confidence intervals: "The ranges represent an approximate 50 <br /> <br />percent confidence interval for each county. That is, a 25 per- <br /> <br />cent probability exists that the range is too high and a 25 per- <br />cent probability that the range is too low. The use of a range <br />in presenting the projections addresses the facts that "exact" <br /> <br />projections are impossible and that, when planning for the <br /> <br />3 <br />