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<br />001091. <br /> <br />Dr aft - 9/ 8 1 <br /> <br />study has chosen to rely solely on the Division's projections. <br /> <br />The report used as the basis for this appendix is explained as <br /> <br />follows: <br /> <br />1> <br /> <br />The results presented in this report constitute the <br />first set of "final" County Population Projections to <br />be released by this agency since April 1976. The pro- <br />jections represent the culmination of 2 complete rounds <br />of regional reviews held around the state in January <br />and July of 1979, in which the modeling techniques, <br />assumptions, and input data were presented for comment <br />and critique. The comments and criticisms have been <br />extremely useful in the modification of the projectIon <br />system. Several improvements can be directly attrib- <br />uted to reviewers' suggestions. (Colorado Division of <br />Planning, 1979, p. 1.) <br /> <br />Various methodologies and models are available for producing <br /> <br />population projections. Common to most of them is the assumption <br /> <br />that only permanent residents are considered. Although the <br /> <br />impact of tourism on peak load demand and water treatment facili- <br /> <br />) <br />....... <br /> <br />ties may be significant, this study focuses on consumptive uses <br />of water which are assumed to be relatively small for tourist <br /> <br />populations. The Colorado Division of Planning produces popula- <br /> <br />tion projections as follows: Historic population growth and <br /> <br />employment are extrapolated into. the future using straight-line <br /> <br />techniques, following a linear regression model. The equation <br /> <br />has five basic inputs, all of which are aggregated to the county <br /> <br />Ie ve 1 : <br /> <br />1. Data from the Colorado Department of Employment (1970~ <br /> <br />1978) are averaged on a two-year cycle to dampen random fluctua- <br /> <br />tions. These mean points are used to define a straight line for <br /> <br />the period. <br /> <br />2. This two-year average trend line is then extrapolated <br /> <br />for the period 1980-2010. <br /> <br />2 <br />