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<br />003104 <br /> <br />Page 3 <br /> <br />Colorado River above Kremmling, Colorado was chosen because of its <br /> <br />proximity to experimental watersheds (Fraser Experimental Forest - see <br /> <br />Troendle, 1983) where the effect of vegetative management on water yield <br /> <br />has been studied. In addition, choosing this area offered an opportune <br /> <br />location for examining the use of runoff increases in the Front Range of <br /> <br />Colorado because of trans basin diversion facilities located on the Arapaho <br /> <br />National Forest. Note, however, that while the Arapaho National Forest was <br /> <br />an apt choice for study purposes; it was an arbitrary one from the <br /> <br />standpoint of the likelihood that vegetation management for flow <br /> <br />augmentation might actually occur. <br /> <br />The initial plan was to project water uses for the years 1985 and <br /> <br />1995. However, early analyses revealed that little change in water use <br /> <br />could be expected in just ten years, due largely to the long time required <br />to construct the major water projects which would be necessary to <br /> <br />facilitate increased Upper Basin water use. Consequently, an approximate <br /> <br />fifty-year time horizon was finally adopted. Note also that the response <br /> <br />of the system to increased inflows will be highly non-linear so that the <br /> <br />results of this study may not represent the effects of larger or smaller <br /> <br />flow enhancements. <br /> <br />l <br /> <br />l <br /> <br />D. Approach to Analysis <br />The analysis performed in this study centered on the adaptation and <br /> <br />use of two previously-developed computer models for the purposes of testing <br /> <br />and evaluating alternative complex sets of assumptions. A network <br /> <br />optimization model (MODSIM) was adapted to evaluate the Colorado River <br /> <br />Basin as a whole, focusing on interstate allocation issues, while a <br /> <br />simulation model (DWDSYM) was used to evaluate effects within the State of <br /> <br />Colorado that may involve transmountain diversion. <br />