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<br />0031U3 <br /> <br />Page 2 <br /> <br />B. Objective of Study <br />The overall objective of this study is to estimate or project how and <br /> <br />where water runoff increases from vegetation manipulation in the Arapaho <br /> <br />National Forest might affect future use of Colorado River water. Such <br /> <br />projections inevitably are subject to many uncertainties about future <br /> <br />conditions which could affect water use. Three sources of such uncertainty <br /> <br />are so important in this case that they deserve explicit consideration'. <br /> <br />They are (1) changes in water allocation institutions, (2) the stochastic <br /> <br />nature of water flows, and (3) future demand for water in municipal, <br /> <br />industrial, and agricultural applications. The analysis must reveal how <br /> <br />possible changes in these parameters could change projections of future <br /> <br />water use, including increased flows. <br /> <br />This report (1) describes the existing water use pattern and <br />institutional framework in the geographical areas whose water use would <br /> <br />potentially be affected by the additional flows, (2) estimates how <br /> <br />additional flows from vegetation manipulation would be used if current <br /> <br />hydrologic, institutional, and water demand conditions remain unchanged, <br /> <br />and (3) projects the ways in which water uses, including those of increased <br /> <br />flows, might change in response to increases in water demands and changes <br /> <br />in water allocation institutions. <br /> <br />C. Study Area and Time Frame <br />To establish a realistic context in which to study the allocation of <br /> <br />potential runoff increases from vegetation modification in the Colorado <br /> <br />River drainage, an area of national forest was selected. The national <br /> <br />forest acreage in the Arapaho National Forest which drains into the <br />