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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />224:) <br /> <br />CHAPTER 2 <br /> <br />Conflicts, Trends and Challenges Facing <br />Today's Water Manager <br /> <br />2-1. THE CHANGING CONTEXT OF WA TER MANAGEMENT <br /> <br />The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus wisely said "It is not possible to step <br />twice into the same river." Water is not the only thing that is always on the move- <br />so are the human affairs surrounding its protection, development, use and <br />management. The context in which the water manager works is ever-changing <br />because the relationship between water supply and water demand is dynamic. Nature <br />varies its distribution of rain and snow, and people vary their uses and abuses of the <br />water while it is on the surface and in the ground. Though change is a constant <br />feature of water management, some aspects of water management change very <br />slowly or only infrequently, so that order and stability nonnally prevail. <br /> <br />This chapter is designed to give the reader an ovetview of some of the forces at <br />work today, both off-resetvation and in Indian Country, that will shape tomorrow's <br />water management situation. Of necessity, the discussion is selective and brief, but it <br />should give a sense of how broad conflicts and trends can come to affect the day-to- <br />day life of the water manager. Later chapters further explain the details of many of <br />the problems discussed here and provide the necessary skills to begin to address these <br />exciting conflictS, trends and challenges. <br /> <br />2-2. CONFLICTS AND TRENDS <br /> <br />Water Availability and Demand <br /> <br />Drought v. Flooding: Uncovering Climatic Change <br /> <br />Science is discovering more about how the climate works 1 and how human use <br />of fossil fuels, such as the burning of coal in power plants, may be altering the <br />weather. Many experts think a wanning trend will occur because of the "greenhouse <br />effect," resulting from the increased buildup of carbon dioxide (C02) in the global <br />aunosphere. Some speculate that substantial reductions in water runoff will occur in <br />many of our river basins if the aunosphere wanns by 2 degrees centigrade (e,g" <br />approximately a 40% reduction in the upper Colorado River basin and a 56% <br />reduction in the lower; a 64% reduction in the Missouri River basin).2 Climate- <br />caused decreases in water runoff would deepen the conflict that already exists over <br />