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<br />> 002887 <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />, <br />United States Department of the Interior <br /> <br />IN REPLY <br />RE'iH2 :0, <br /> <br />LC-460 <br /> <br />BUREAU OF RECLAMATION <br />LOWER COLORADO REGIONAL OFFICE <br /> <br />BOULDE:c~~;~7JfX: h/,~005 RECEIVED <br />JUL 81985 //1, .2Y@Nr;:,,,,, <br />'J/lle;!l H), ~. <br />"'/; ,/111 . r} IV'f.'iV~ nfi[ 10-1985 <br />.....,~ c,l... 7 r- .r ~7 ....,,\lV <br />Co CO.(O ' ,J 1.98,;' PPER COLOKAW <br />'I1tSl:tr:4DO ~' IVER COMMISSION <br />'/II'tO/lI :q1'~1i' LT I.At<i: CIty. UTAH <br />S041i'D <br /> <br />Mr. Gerald R. Zimmerman <br />Upper Colorado River Commission <br />355 South 400 East <br />Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 <br /> <br />Dear Mr, Zimmerman: <br /> <br />As you are aware, the Lower Colorado Regional Office has been using the <br />Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) as a tool in planning and reservoir <br />operation studies. Up until late 1984, however, only the older <br />Colorado River Storage Project model (CRSP) had been used for the purpose <br />of making Central Arizona Project (CAP) water supply projections. This <br />office made the first such study of CAP's future water availability, using <br />the CRSS, in December 1984, <br /> <br />CRSS was adopted for use because it has proven to be a more useful and <br />versatile tool for ptojecting future Colorado River conditions, The <br />simulation model and data bases associated with CRSS are more comprehensive <br />and better documented than the previously used CRSP model and its data <br />base. <br /> <br />The CRSS water supply projections for CAP represent a significant increase <br />over those done previously with the CRSP model. For that reason, we are <br />providing the enclosed analysis which compares the December 1984 CRSS <br />projections with a previous CAP water supply study made with the CRSP model <br />in January 1981, for investigation of regulatory storage alternatives. <br /> <br />CRSS projects water supplies for CAP which average 30 percent greater for <br />the period 1985 through 2040. Similarly, water shortages to CAP are <br />projected to occur less frequently, and initial water shortages are not <br />projected until 2015 at the earliest, based on the CRSS analysis. This <br />differs greatly from the subject CRSP study which projected water shortages <br />as early as 1993. <br /> <br />The enclosed analysis explains the differences in CAP's future <br />by identifying and quantifying each major contributing factor. <br />analysis concludes the following: <br /> <br />water supply <br />The <br /> <br />1. The increase in CAP's projected water supply is explained <br />comparison of differences in data, assumptions, and simulation <br />between CRSS and CRSP studies. <br /> <br />by the <br />methods <br />