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. Webster Hi 11 Reservoir has a surface area of less than 1,000 acres. o The transbasin diversions would have to increase enouqh to serve the needs of over 200,000 additional people. o There would have to be an oil-shale industry in operation, producing 150,000 barrels of oil per day. While it is believed that all the above development conditions are likely to occur, it will certainly be some time in the future before the actual conditions of Scenario II are fully realized. It is impossible to accurately predict when any or all of the Scenario II conditions might be met, but it is unlikely that all of these conditions will be realized before the year 2000 A.D. . Since the base case conditions are not likely to be met until some time after the completion of the Webster Hill project, the adoption of the base case lends a degree of conservativeness to the feasibility study. Even under Scenario III (a high rate of development), the reservoir would still be entitled to capture 20,000 ac-ft every year except a critical dry year. During a 100-year drought, the reservoir would not be entitled to capture any water under these maximum development conditions. Again, this would only constrain water availability to the project if there were two consecutive drought years. . As explained earlier, WWE used a straight percentage approach to determine demand for future projects, rather than a project-by- project analysis as was used in the Una study. While this straight percentage method has some advantages, it does not allow assessment of the effect of certain large projects. Specifically, the Una Reservoir, planned for a site 30 mi downstream of the Webster Hill project, has a marked effect on water availability to the Webster Hill Reservoir. The Una Reservoir is a relatively large project, 3686-a/6 II-16