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<br />. <br /> <br />three future development scenarios by using the same approach used in <br />the Water Resources Council's The Availability of Water for Oil-Shale <br />and Coal Gasification Oevelopment in the Upper Colorado River Basin, <br />commonly referred to as Assessment 13A, and the Colorado Water <br />Conservation Board's Una Reservoir Project study. <br /> <br />The three future water resource development scenarios were developed <br />by applying information on water rights and projections for water <br />resource use. One scenario assumes a low rate of water resource <br />development (Scenario I), the second scenario depicts an average rate <br />of development (Scenario II), while the third depicts a high rate of <br />development (Scenario III). Scenario II has been adopted as the <br />project's base case: the most probable set of river development <br />conditions which will occur during the life of the project. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />A computer simulation model was developed and run for each of the <br />scenarios for a 40-year period, assuming that future stream flow <br />conditions will be similar to the historic conditions. With the <br />computer model, the followinq approximations were made: 1) the amount <br />of storage the Webster Hi 11 water right can expect to yield each <br />year, 2) the storage capacity at the end of each month, and 3) the <br />amount of water flowing past the reservoir. <br /> <br />1. Water Rights Applicable to Webster Hill Reservoir <br />Within the State of Colorado, there are over 5,000 water rights <br />in the Colorado River basin that are senior to the Webster Hill <br />Reservoir storage right, and another 2,000 water rights that are <br />junior. Of the total 7,000 water rights, some are considered <br />absolute (actually diverting) while the others are conditional <br />(yet to be used), like Webster Hill's water right. If all of <br />the decreed water rights senior to Webster Hill were developed <br />and depleted the river by their full decreed amounts of water, <br />there would be no water available for Webster Hill to store. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />However, as a practical matter, only a portion of the senior <br />water rights will ever be developed to the detriment of Webster <br /> <br />3686-a/6 <br /> <br />II-5 <br />