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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
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<br />ent to the senses. Similar evidence to that described <br />for the relationships of the recreation and aesthetics <br />tenns was manifested for the ecological and aesthetics <br />tenns; the calculated correlalion coefficient in this <br />case was not quite as high, 0.2345. Despite any atten- <br />uation or weakening caused by correlation with other <br />variables, this lerm is shown by Equation 5.25 as being <br />one of the more important. Certainly, the interest in <br />ecology warrants inclusion of such a term in analyses <br />of the merits of flood control proposals. <br /> <br />The results of analysis of the term interrelaling <br />the "Willingness to Pay for Government Expenditures <br />Scale," PAYL, and lIPerceived Cost of a Projece' indi- <br />cated Term 10 to be Ihe least important. The cost ac- <br />ceptance function had the lowest standardized coeffi- <br />cient ofany of the interaction terms in Equation 5.25. <br />The scale score P A YL for willingness to pay had the <br />second highest reliability of any of the scales (Appen- <br />dix B). This would indicate that concern about flood <br />control cost is not as great a concern as other aspects <br />of a project. The general public may usually assume <br />a proposal is affordable if it is proposed by an offi- <br />cial agency and costs are not direct; they may also ex- <br />pect officials who oversee the flood control decision <br />to be responsible for keeping costs down. If this is <br />true, monetary considerations will be very important <br />to an agency, especially the decision agency, in deter~ <br />mination of acceptable flood control proposals. Such <br />a result is su~ested by Equation III, but requires fur- <br />ther testing. 3 In any case, a cosl acceptance func- <br />tion term should be included in all studies, whether <br />it be an agency or public group being analyzed, until <br />furlher testing indicales specifically when and where <br />it is unimportant. <br /> <br />The correlation between the "Ecological Orienta- <br />tion Scale," ECOL, and MANL was computed as <br />0.3745. It is interesting also Ihat use of leisure orien- <br />tation, LEIL, in place of MANL in this acceptance <br />function term (Term 7 of Equation 5.21) results in al- <br />most exactly the same coefficients and correlation as <br />in Equation 5.24. This point is illustrated by replac- <br />ing (MANIA) by (LEIL-6) (see Appendix D) in Equa- <br />tion 5.24. The resulting equation in unstandardized <br />farm is: <br /> <br />(I) (2) (3) (4) <br />POPEVE = .381-.124XI + .124X2 - .480X3+.049X4 <br /> <br />(5) (6) (7) <br />+ .063X5 + .023X6X12 + .032XI <br /> <br />33Equation IV and VI do not indicate strong impor- <br />tance of cost factors because the effect of monetary consid- <br />erations is largely absorbed by the Type IV term for the influ- <br />ence ofprcviousagency evaluations. The effect of the cost <br />factors is probably underrated even in Equation III because of <br />the fact that it appears in both Terms 2 and 3 (see Gordon, <br />1968). <br /> <br />(8) (9) <br />+ .0090X8X14 + .0079~XI5 <br /> <br />(10) (11) <br />+ .0084XlOX16 + .0065XII Xl7 <br /> <br />(5.26) <br /> <br />In standardized fonn is: <br /> <br />(I) (2) (3) (4) <br />POPEVE = -.I72XI +.1J4X2".107X3+.108X4 <br /> <br />(5) (6) (7) <br />+ .087X5 + .339X6X12 + .196X7X13 <br /> <br />(8) (9) (10) <br />+ .1 11 X8X 14 + .124~XI5 + .081XIOX16 <br /> <br />(II) <br />+ .1l9XIlX17 . .. . (5.27) <br /> <br />The r2 of Equation 5.26 or 5.27 is 0.490. <br /> <br />Equation 5.26 was not used inslead of Equation <br />5.24 because of the slightly smaller value of the co- <br />efficient in Term 7 and slight reduction in r2. The <br />results would have been easier to explain had this lasl <br />equation been used on the hypothesis that leisure ori- <br />entation and outdoor aesthetics orientation are corre- <br />lated. All that can be expressed with certainty at this <br />stage of development is that the aesthetics acceptance <br />function is important and must be included for realis- <br />tic analysis of public flood control proposal evalua- <br />tions. What the actual value of the coefficient will be <br />in this context with satisfactory measurements of the <br />variables remains for further study. <br /> <br />The last term in Equation 5.24, the only Type <br />IV term in the equation, accounts for the influence <br />of the County Flood Control Division agency. It is <br />the predicted value of that agency's revised evalua- . <br />tion which is entered inlo this lerm in the model. Th~ <br />companion variable is measured by the "Willingness <br />to Follow the Advice of Experls," EXPfL The scale <br />was slightly more effective in this interaction than the <br />"Willingness to Follow Government Agencies Scale, II <br />AGENL, Term IV; this could partly be because of the <br />higher reliabilitl and longer length of this scale (see <br />AppendIX C).3 This type of relationship should al- <br />ways be included in any attempt to predict actual re- <br />action to proposals by the public. It may be useful to <br />add more acceptance functions of this kind with each <br />one representing the effect upon the public's evalua- <br />lion of some significant group. <br /> <br />In summary, all the acceptance functions in- <br />cluded in this population analysis seem reasonable <br /> <br />34rhe fact that a variable is used as a Type I variable <br />did not prevent its selection for a Type IV term. The selec- <br />tion of the variables for the interaction terms was done be- <br />fore the addition of other variables to an equation. <br /> <br />77 <br />
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