My WebLink
|
Help
|
About
|
Sign Out
Home
Browse
Search
FLOOD09697
CWCB
>
Floodplain Documents
>
Backfile
>
9001-10000
>
FLOOD09697
Metadata
Thumbnails
Annotations
Entry Properties
Last modified
1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
Creation date
10/5/2006 4:34:01 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Community
Nationwide
Basin
Statewide
Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
There are no annotations on this page.
Document management portal powered by Laserfiche WebLink 9 © 1998-2015
Laserfiche.
All rights reserved.
/
185
PDF
Print
Pages to print
Enter page numbers and/or page ranges separated by commas. For example, 1,3,5-12.
After downloading, print the document using a PDF reader (e.g. Adobe Reader).
Show annotations
View images
View plain text
<br />The "Proportion of Single Unit Structures in <br />the City Block," may be important because of social <br />interaction effects. An individual is influenced by the <br />opinions of his associates and neighbors, especially <br />those whom he feels share his situation. Therefore, a <br />single residence occupant in an area of apartment type <br />multiple dwellings24 can be hypothesized to be more <br />likeiy to be positive on a flood control issue than single <br />residence inhabitanls in a neighborhood dominated <br />by singie residents. <br /> <br />The first term related positively to the depend- <br />ent variables is Term 2 (variable X2), "Proximity of <br />Flood Experiences to Present Residence." If a person <br />has actually experienced flooding and particularly in <br />the place in which he lives, he is expected to be more <br />likely to favor a flood control proposal. Variable X4, <br />rrWillingness to Follow Government Agencies,11 would <br />also be expected to be positively related to support <br />for flood conlrol since most flood control proposals <br />(all those considered in calibration of the model) are <br />government recommendations. <br /> <br />Term 5 or variable XS' "Knowledge of Local <br />Flood Control Proposals," turned out to be positively <br />related to the evalualion of flood control proposals <br />for the cases tested but may not be generalizable to <br />other areas or circumstances.25 The positive relation- <br />ship in Equation 5.24 may be because the strong ef- <br />fect of negalive factors on the evalualion of a proposal <br />is largely accounled for by the acceptance functions. <br />A positive relalionship would be reduced to the degree <br />that the extra knowledge centers on negative factors. <br />The sign and value of the coefficienl of Xs needs fur- <br />ther testing by calibrating the general equation for <br />each population to which the model is applied.26 <br /> <br />The population variables may be much more im- <br />portant in predicting differences in the reactions of dif- <br />ferent populations to the same proposal than in the prc- <br />sent application of predicling differences within the <br />same population to different proposals. This is be- <br />cause a variable must fluctuate to be studied. Conse- <br />quently, data from a homogenous population may <br />cause population variables which are important deter. <br />minanls to be underrated. The matter can only be re- <br />solved by applying the general equation to substan- <br />tively different populations. <br /> <br />24Condominiums may be an exception because they <br />are owned by the occupant. <br />25There IS about one chance in fourteen that the posi- <br />tive relationship is spurious for the sampled population. This <br />is the weakest significance level of terms in the equation. <br />26It may be impossible to predict the sign and magni- <br />tude of Xs from the social and hydrologic conditions oran <br />area. This interesting and worthwhile task, however, would <br />be a major undertaking. <br /> <br />Interaction terms <br /> <br />The interaction terms in the Equation 5.24 are <br />the heart of this equation and lhis model. They link <br />the separate equations together and also account for <br />most of the variance in the evaluation equations. In <br />fact, the general equation could be calibrated using <br />the interaction terms alone, and most of the variance <br />accounted for by Equation 5.24 would be included. <br /> <br />An indication of the approximate relative im- <br />portance of the terms of the equation can be seen from <br />the sizes of the coefficients in standardized form (see <br />Chapter II). Allhough the coefficients are large for <br />the interaclion terms, the r2 without the single vari- <br />able terms would almost certainly be larger than that <br />estimated from the ratio of the sum of the coefficients <br />of the standardized interaction lerms to that of the <br />sum of the standardized single variable terms. This is <br />because of variance which would be explained by <br />other variables if a term were removed. The measure- <br />ment error in some cases is greater for variables in the <br />interaction terms; and this would results in underesti- <br />mation of the real effect of terms of which those vari- <br />ables are part. <br /> <br />In all the interaction terms the scale score was <br />reduced by the number of items in the scale (Appen- <br />dix C) in order to make the minimum Score equal <br />zero. There is an implied assumption in lhis proce- <br />dure that all attitudes are unidirectional in effect. Set- <br />ting the zero poinl at one end of the scale means that <br />there can be no opposites In sign. This means that the <br />directional effect of an interaction with another vari- <br />able depends entirely on the magnitude of the other <br />variable. Unisigned variables are consistent with the <br />idea of importance functions for which function <br />scale scores were used in the interaction terms in the <br />mathematical model. Importance normally is thought <br />of as more or less, not negative or positive. In most <br />cases, as applied in this model, this is reasonable.27 <br />It may not be tenable for the Type IV term for the <br />effecl of a revised decision agency evaluation on the <br />public's attitude. <br /> <br />The quantity three was subtracted from the per- <br />ceived judgment score used in each of the Type III <br />terms, called acceptance functions, so that "neutral" <br />received a value of zero. This was done because of <br />the substantive meaning of these interaction terms. <br />The effect of a positive attitude about recreation, for <br />example, would be the reverse if the proposal would <br />lessen the quality or quantity2 8 of recreation than if <br /> <br />27It is assumed that almost no one will be against eco- <br />logy, aesthetics, recreation, or effectivenss of a flood control <br />proposal. <br /> <br />28Quality and quantity were not distinguished in ask- <br />ing the perception of the effect of a proposal. This may be <br />a distinction for some variables such as recreation. <br /> <br />75 <br />
The URL can be used to link to this page
Your browser does not support the video tag.