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+ . 112X4i - .088X5i + .-12X6i + .070X7i + .115X8i + .043 (X9 XIO) + .163)(1 + .142)(2+ ,180)(3+.112)(4 -.088)(5 + .112X6 + .070)(7 + .115)(8 . . (5.5) + .048 (X9 XIO)' . Equation II and IF statement A: decision agency need Equation II: N - CI C2M + C3 CONCL+ C4 PPl1(!. (5.6) IF stalement Pl: IF N > 0, continue (5.7) where PAn Decision agency need for a plan Plgency mission effect; (O";M"; 10) Mean public concern about flood. ing (from Equation 1); 0"; CONC!."; 32 = Willingness to pay for government expendilures by the public: 0";PA1(L";24 N M. = CONCL = C2, C3, and C4 adjust theweightings ofM,CONCL, and PPl1(Un Equation II (5.6) and are always positive since Ihese variables are considered 10 vary directly wilh N. CI is used 10 adjust Equation II so Ihat IF slatement Pl is leue. Since M, CONCL, and PPl1(L are never negative, this mean that C1 must be less than zero under the constraint caused by IF statement Pl in order for the system ever to be able to stop planning flood control solutions (i.e. make N"; 0). The value of M was defined as varying from zero to ten and was arbitrarily set at five or a median posi- tion on Ihe scale. CONCL is Ihe output of Equation I and PA 1(1. is one of the independent population vari- ables. CONCL and P A 1(1. are both used as independenl variables in Equation II. ,\II of the values plus the C values and Ihe value of N can be printed out when Ihe simulation model is used. C2 was set at two, and C3 and C4 were given val. ues of one. C2 was given a greater value than the other coefficients because it was felt from experience that variation over the small range of M, agency mission faclor, as compared 10 CONC!.and P A 1(1. would other. wise underplay an important factor. M was weighted . more to compensate for the smaller range and thus more accurately represent Ihe Iheory behind the equa- tion, although in this case M never varied during use of Ihe model. C2M Ihus became essentially a constant often and reduced the value ofCI thai would be reo quired. C I was adjusted to make the equalion respond in what was judged a realistic way to variations in CONCLand PPl1(L and to variations in the indepen- denl variables in Equation l. Essentially, the idea was to adjusl CI so that Equation II would become nega- tive only when the variables reflecling public concern and attitudes had values that precluded any need for flood control. These would be circumstances, for example, where little or no communication occurred regarding flooding problems or the perception of flood probabilities became very low. The value cho- sen for CI was .37. Since M, CONCL, and PA 1(1. are all grealer lhan zero, the only way that N can be less than zero is for the absolute value of C 1 to be laIger than the combined values of Ihe other lerms, and for C1 to be opposite in sign. It is thisrelationship of CI 10 the other terms thai allows the calibration of this equation by assigning an appropriate number 10 CI' Inserting the values of the con slants in Equation 5.6 gives: N=-37+2M+CONCL+PPl1(L. . . (5.8) Willingness to pay for government expenditures (P Pl1(L) was placed in the equation because it is thought that less willingness to pay might reduce the demand for flood control in situations where the con- cern aboul flooding is low. The coefficient of PPl1(L was positive since a higher value of PA 1(Lmeansa greater willingness to pay. IF slatement Pl provides a poinl for the model to end its analysis. If there is enough concern over the flooding problem to cause eSlablishment of a flood control agency, it is unlikely that the problem will ever be so completely solved thai no more effort will be needed I 0 or thai public concern about flooding will become so low as to oppose all further plans for flood control. An N greater than zero signifies cir- cumstances that allow an agency to consider flood control proposals. AJ1 of the rest of the social model consists of one group or another doing this. Agency Evaluation Equalions Equation Ill: Initial evaluations Unstandardized form: (I) (2) (3) Y = ..241. .305X1 - ,0695X2X9 + 8,43X2 (I/XtQ) (4) (5) (6) + .00568X3Xll + .136X4X12 + .228X5X13 (5.9) lOShould flooding problems be nearly completely solved, the function of a tlood.control agency may change to some other public works activity, or perhaps large parts of the staff would be transferred to another agency. 64