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1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />Table 5.1. Variables in Equation I: public concern. <br /> Possible Range of <br />Variable Definition Schedule Item Unstandardized Scoresa <br />CONCLb Perception of Need (in sample) for Improved Flood (Appendix B) 9.44 to 43.Sc <br /> Control in a Local Area (CONCL) <br />XI Number of Types of Sources of Information About (9) o to 6 <br />Flooding (NSORSE) <br />X2 Perceived Likelihood of Flooding at Personally Owned (2-A) o to 100 <br />Property in the Area (KPERFL) <br />X3 Length of Years of Awareness of Neighborhood Flooding (7-A) o to 99 <br />Problems (LNElGH) <br />14 Closeness of Groups of Persons With Whom They Dis-- (9-P) o to 3 <br />cussed Flooding Problems (KLOSGR) <br />Xs Number of Young Children (NYONGC) (119) o to 3 <br />~ Willingness to Pay for Government Expenditures (Appendix B) o to 24 <br />(P A yU;)d <br />X7 Attitude Toward Effect of Man-Made Objects Upon the (Appendix B) o to 16 <br />Beauty of Nature (MANL-4) <br />Xs leisure Orientation (LEIL4) (Appendix B) o to 16 <br />~ Proximity of Flooding Experience (KLOSF) (S) o to 3 <br />XlO Cost of Damage from Flooding to the respondent (2) o to 999 <br />(1COSTF) <br /> (X9 XIO = 0 to 2997) <br /> <br />aFar a definition of the meaning of the scores, refer to Appendix A. <br />bSca1es used to measure the dependent variable, CONCL and the variables fA YL, MANL, and LEIL are listed in Appendix <br />B. The values of the items in these scales may be the fact in the weights given for each question as shown in Appendix A. <br />orhe range of the dependent variables is the minimum to maximum that could be obtained from extreme values of the in- <br />dependent variables. <br />dJames et a1. (1971 :37) investigated a similar variable for willingness to spend personal money, but in a different context. <br />They were measuring willingness to pay for relief from flood damage by taxes or flood insurance. <br /> <br />tion using the same variables was also tried with no <br />improvement. The only interaction term in Equation <br />I (5.4) is ~XIO' and Ibis term has the leasl impor. <br />lance of the terms as can be seen from Ihe coefficients <br />of the standardized form. Perhaps one reason for the <br />low r2 is the lack of lerms representing public flood- <br />ing concern. In any case, underlying causal relalion- <br />ships involved will require better defmiIion to greally <br />improve the level of prediction. <br /> <br />The coefficienls of the standardized form (Equa- <br />tion 5.5) should only be used to compare the relalive <br />importance of terms presently in the equalion. They <br />should not be considered as refteclive of the weights <br />of these faclors in the "real world." When Ihe propor- <br />tion of explsined variance is low, the sizes of the co- <br />efficients are very unslable and could, a1moslliterally, <br />disappear with the addilion or change of variables in <br />the equation (Gordon, 1968; Schoenberg, 1971). <br /> <br />Equation I: Perception of need (or concern) for flood <br />control in a local area (CONCL)8 <br /> <br />Unstandardized form: <br /> <br />8 Also called concern for flooding: hence the acronym, <br />CONCL. <br /> <br />n <br />- lUNCL ~ (10.S + .S06XIi + .12SX3i <br />n i=l <br /> <br />+ .3ooX4i - ,453XSi + .148X6i + .l46X7i <br /> <br /> <br />+.230XSi+.0012(X9iXlOi) = 10.8 <br /> <br />+ ,S06XI+ .033X2+.128X3 + .399X4 <br /> <br />- .4S3XS + .14SX6 + .146X7 + .230XS <br /> <br />9 <br />+.0012 (X9 XIO) (5.4) <br /> <br />Standardized form: <br /> <br />n <br />CONCL = n ~ (.163Xli + .142X2i + .l80X3i <br />i=l <br /> <br />9The presentation of Equations 5.4 and 5.5 are techni. <br />cally correct. It should be remembered that in calculation of <br />coefficients by regressjonamlysis, the values ofvariab1es are <br />considered individuaUy and the.best match made Qver allcases. <br />The mean va1\le signs matter in the case of product terms since <br />the product of the means is not generally equal to the mean <br />of the products. Howev~r, it is cumbersome to write the sum- <br />mation and mean value signs continually and henceforth they <br />will be omitted for simplicity of presentation. "n" as used <br />here represents the sample size and the used calibration by <br />the regression progr8.JTl. <br /> <br />63 <br />
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