|
<br />-.
<br />
<br /> 3.2
<br />J!!
<br />~ 3
<br />m
<br />!!'
<br />m
<br />.c
<br />"
<br />m
<br />i5 2.6
<br />'"
<br />0
<br />...J
<br /> 2.6
<br />
<br />.. -"..- .~...- ... ~..-..- .--,... ---'.
<br />
<br />. .-. ."C -~-.-. -._____.~-_.____._______
<br />
<br />'. i ~__.
<br />
<br />Graph 6. Log-Normal Regression of AMS and CUHP Data
<br />
<br />Log.Normal Fr,quency Factor V$. Actual Harvard Gulch
<br />
<br />Peak Discharges and CUHP Prediction (40% Imp. Class B)
<br />m
<br />
<br />R' = 0.9536
<br />R' = 0.9962
<br />
<br />50 year100 year
<br />
<br />3.6
<br />
<br />2 year
<br />
<br />10 year
<br />
<br />5 year
<br />
<br />3.4
<br />
<br />E':':":";-W:"~'-':[.!"- "I~"':'c"t..., "'",,~.;::- ,'W' ""1'f:':-"r'lIl""CO -,'r '''T'''..r:a:.;,....]l':i;;. c"~~;;m", '-"...Iit If" l"t...'.. ~I ' "~"f', ;:"''''j';:;''''':O-''ln
<br />,~. ~,~: -:, "'ir;/.~~.k,~~- '.~'.., ~~~.....,,",: ,~-';~l;~~~1,.~d~'5~,:.L....;.5'r1~i,<::'Y:J.~r/~,>t;!~}"..', t.~ ~ t __,p: :_.'1t. .~I'~r--,"'4J('-' ',1'
<br />-::. ': ~:" ~~ ~ ':1 ' -,.. ,C" . j. ,,~~. i~ : :~~~.'.' - ~L'.: 'j' ~: < '-: ..,t,:r,'- : ":lj~ ,; . : jf', ': ~ ,.;rll -- --::1'l' _.....,' , ':, , 1: il"'~":~ < , \I~ If Ji'": - .~_ ".".t~I'
<br />, .. . . ,. ,', , ,. '''''''' (<, ,. .' .. b ,'d' ","' -, t.., .'. '. 'l ..
<br />~~. ~r- .~~{--..Il'..' __'~1' . ...",.~,- ..,i'.:~(":..II'.!_-::,-.~,':I.t.J,,"~,:,',~ ':." .~....~....'.. j t ~ ~.: ,: j' t~...':;\;j[iJ
<br />. , ~li....,;.~ ~~~ ~ _l{:.c,,~t.::"~"....~L....;........JI.' _~'_....."__""",,~ t:"~.l~~ml:::=-~~......J1 "';1'';::.1, l!~:~-"..l .:.:.:!........ '_~....l."" ~~~~. J... '.' _,~...... 4~~j :':.u-....:...:t"\)
<br />~ ---'"---~-t-.- ',,,- . '"11" ,~-~-- "" '-"lr--~I~~~"''''''~O~'~-~t''''''''''''~K.' --R-. "'~'lr ........, '<, .. ' -,' -~' ,,,,...,. '=~
<br />,,'.1... "1~ ~ ,....,. "~~" "1-~;. ~1.~r~~-'7k;"-"'" ~'e;,~k' r~"'t:;.~ Jot':,:~ "~':.~l'~": ,~o :'.tf":I' '-h ';/~t;,":'~-"~i~~-~
<br />:. i~' ',.. . ","'''''' :"1 " " 'j"'-<'"",' ,', '~1' ',,~" ~., '.. !ill,.u' ""~~ > .." ""J '",',! >;;" ., 'r . "".""," .
<br />::-~, ;~1 '! ': :!r ~rr-,,".~".: ~~-:-_~"~~,' ":.;:)~'''.,;-: "~"':'lt.;':i~-;-.J:"1! :"~':.' .:.; i'.;' '_~L ,"~t, ,- It. --: :~. ~~.,~ ';1: ';.,.::1,
<br />"';'" l' . -I"~ : .~, '-,:;~,<~;; ":. 3~~ -'1[ ..,', -.~; ;!~...~~:.JF~ ,-:r -", ~IE";>If1t ~, .it.... ~~ !:,'.j' :7t~ 'Ull'r~H11
<br />~ L r , ., '- .' , '. ~~ ,__,"" - ~~ 'l~ .... t:;:,:, ,1",...1,....".',. ',. .(. .,"'.~,...k ' -.J., " ... f'~' ';1"1 ,____~<!A <
<br />.....,".., .,..< ..., .,'., .0, _"__h, .' __,.,___, ~..,,-, . b,__""-' "..."_,.~.. "', ", "..~~... __~.' .. '" .. , ...,,-,,"";': ."'~,...~
<br />~l';~"'.'-';~.l~ '.-WO.,t.., ~- ~f.:':" ,- '1~ -- -'!;-'~' - 1!:'-"-'" l'--;"Y.li~- '. ~'ii,~r-t...~t"''''''~1r-' ~'::'~r'''''''''''''t-'-'-~- 'r-1~-"~ - , 'l ~\-?-lr ;'~;"-:'~"""';-'"""'~1f~
<br />::....-~:; ~i '. ,; I, ~ -: l' 1~"'''1r 'r '.1' J- -, ~ .. ....1:;,-;..- .....~;,;..,:.. 'jf:
<br />. .' .-':', .,' ~ < , .r JI y.. \ ,'- '. ' '11 I ,...,;)~~~t ~~r:, > ~ '~'~:!'
<br />.> .- .... .l... - ..,~.-" ". ~ , 1 1 1" , ',-t.., . ~ li.'~, j~. j~)<l~"" :.'-!!~~ , . ". . ~~. . d
<br />:, . .>. ;!. <,'i..' ':'.,.r;:.,.:,.~; ; ~f rJ~I.') Ft.'. ~::~. ~1'-'1'>11 ' ',. ~l ..,: };jt"., 1 '. ~ ;:i~~~:-r~~, J i~ ..,:t 'l~ I,. d''','_
<br />~..' "'..'. . ",':' .':'~,.'--.. '..c'. ,..~... , .,.V'~' -"I lit' >-.,' t "".' ." ~.~ ,;>t' .~' " '::1 f,(, .J _'~., . ._' .', ...
<br />,,,",,,t ,..'...;.."....,(-...,.L~,~"r ,~-'...._, ,", ."j t,,,_ i:'J,"~...r_jL~ ,~''''''~o ~"",.. L.,,_,~ ~,.... ", ~ ',.., L..~__ .t.._'~l,
<br />r"." T ..,' '"TP'.'. "-" ..' ",-.,~--" ""'''''1'1'-' -1''''''''110--;-;' ;'3~1'\--""','7"- 'or..,."..."o.....::' "~"--==,.." - - --.; . .." ' '<"".'. ,.'.....r.,. :." .'~':--1.
<br />.,.:". . ',., '. '~~r -:'..JI '~.." 1'" G',~_ .'1' T ~'" '0:.:-'1' ,'{'1' "i, 7d~' -.." ;:;.-......--.,;" l~_ .' . ,,['..' "";:.!."";..,
<br />. l~ ,- ,..~ ',~. .. "" . ~.'..,. .~ ,'~ .:If ". $ ~? ! 11 I .",..' ~~ 'c.,.-.,.'.....-.'Jf...
<br />", :,r:' ,:~, .l ...l:.;::.;t.;J~~-':;';;';I~.:d ;;:J~:\;l~:;;'):~t:.~;~ij~~:~: :;I j~' It'i:~Jf.:lf;,~:m~
<br />. ..;...,...-.:.~1........... ..1.. .,,' ~t ".._Jf.,. '--"" '.JW..~_~L_.I. ,:._.....u,;""~ l!~~tr.:~~....~.fiJh:.,_ ....::~~{})~~. \ .J .~,_ .~, ~ It. . .If.' ._.,',/.1,',....,,: ~t ."~',!...:.. :..,~ ., ju'j
<br />fP ,-.,~ ,- .'"..'. ,...... ,'.. I".... r.',~' 'l'''~''''''''-ll" '""=m'^' '!T'~r'!'''' .' 'I'P'~~"''-''''''f'''T' n 1'- ~n'''''""",,7. ~~...
<br />p","....'" ':I","',v' ,',I",' I' ",", f,.,."~"~..'1".""'~,'1 ..'.','.-',..1,',.,..;::..[. " .:,!......,..f'".i,'...:k
<br />1:,:.)., :~' ~i ~: . JI~"" if'. tl ,/, Ix. ,.<i..~o~ti~j~ 11' ~r F,'~~~<:"~,;W.r .H-."E W -:.;~.J)::<:)~,--:'~'Jrf
<br />~. , r , ~,' 'to t~'Il~ r~,~ ^; ,;:..,...,..... ",' , , i <,.....,".';..'1..~.
<br />Je' 1: , . .J' ' J,' j- "'-"fll'!" -r' ,- ~.~.t f, ..,,1~, '-~.,l' ';~..':! 1 (.~'_ , .:;,!L. ,j" ;;'::"J~;J
<br />"t:..._~~, ... -; I:". __~ L.... .~~~ ~:"'Jl~~' ..:4;$.~',..jL ..c'~f ~_".,..~Uk;:i:>.!;;..:../.'~.,.~~.,lL :1, :i_: .,::t_H.,..;_"~'.;.).~'~~j
<br />fT' c," ..-... .. . 'w. ,,~ , ""'k ~"""'~""'l" - ',,-- '"'!-' , --. ' "."'T. .'''1'' .'.''''-'11' I' ..,-. or '-"'.f" ......-.-l.m.
<br />~~.:,' :: j;. '';'1~< ~ . ~::~." ~R~{~~'''''l:~ . ~ .1; ~;': .:'~'1 . ~_ i[ ,:. .>l~'jl,: ".~ifh~?:'::~':~; ,.:J.'.~.H. :~ '..." ,~!i . '. :!~ .':~:;(' ;~:.~f'L:.~::;~;
<br />[> ".' " ,t,.. .,::~~~~i',,-','p',.:..,I; ,,-,,J 1:' ;".;f1~<.:',1~.:,:j!'i ';;'Ii ::"'.,),
<br />" . ,I ~ ~~~J~: ;:~~q~:<~>( -',:"'f t I, ~. "'; ,'~~ ;l'~-'<-,.J.k.::~.~>~~;~.,::.,)'.lf, ~ I , ;~.:f"( "'ii,~
<br />~ ,-~.. ", - ._~ _:::::::it"l... k;.s;:2 ,- ...Jolr'". -! ,l ,~;:.;J (:I.........:..::.i......_ ..><i!...~_~ _ "",I:. ~ __ .,...~.':'..'. ::l> -"_, t... 1_ .. "t , " 1I, ." . ~~~
<br />..~ ',", ",~~ - .'.~' '[,;~r~7t rr<'l'~(':: -'-c'w, ::~11I;j:;:llr ;"~'l~!-,;-::::;i:';' :: l't ::?:;;~,~,,~;jk; .. "p' ~1 .. .",; :~ 11 T ~[~
<br />. '11 ~r.,,"'~C. I ..i',~...: i,r ,''-lf~,....t''...r'1'.~.~'r'' '.,,'i_"1~ -,:J ~'~rl'~'-"~~' ~.'jt "_" ~ '::", ~i W',
<br />" "I~~.$I'"':'- ~1'" .,:J",' ~ .11'i'''' '-"'l~r-:-~"\t'-_~.. ""':.~'r"Jr .' ~ r' ~~~.~.... ~ ~r.' .r 11 11' _ ,. '; J.I 1" ,I.";
<br />,- ..;--.::r-:--.: . ....~. "r; ."-;r "~w ~,~~'Y.":"1r;^~,.- .~J~' ")~'.~..:~:~, ':1- ,., Ik' I I _ ,( ,oJl' '. 'j
<br />~~ '1, .' ;,.~.-::1"'r;7., J';"" Ir~ 'f ..X.....,j ....', J... " -. ~'" 'It ~ .u" ~ j~"_o,; '. . I" "..,..." ~ t j' . '. .1,_
<br />. .I. . j" ~~... , , ~~... . . . '-.... .W '~ " ... . ~I > '"' ~>,.0." ".:>,j1,:, .;,1 .If'::1;;' " ,'.:./:-:t'~,"'~;.-{.f t......, - ~.:. .:. ~ir_~ ~ ....~,.,' .,.:,';: ". ~:~ ,!;; ;:. r" , _. ~,
<br />.~ '---'- ~".,.'- __.........:.,~.h_ .__--Ir::-_._"....U..l'f').."'.;:h~....<:;.:\o, .......9."--'LJ~~"""'-.a.\l{;M I<-<::.~'lti'tt>:""~<-I~ t..r..oll;; .",..~_.""~_-L.J,l~...-"'~I:..:J.....'.=:III ...u:<..:W
<br />
<br />2.4
<br />
<br />2.2
<br />.1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
<br />
<br />0.2
<br />
<br />0.4
<br />
<br />0.6
<br />
<br />0.8
<br />
<br />1.0
<br />
<br />1.2
<br />
<br />1.4
<br />
<br />1.6
<br />
<br />1.6
<br />
<br />2.0
<br />
<br />2.2
<br />
<br />2.4
<br />
<br />Normal Frequency Factor (Kn)
<br />
<br />6. Actual _ Predicted
<br />
<br />Linear (Predicted)
<br />
<br />Linear (Actual)
<br />
<br />Application and Evaluation of CUHP
<br />
<br />Page 18 of 52
<br />
<br />,.\.,
<br />
|