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<br />distribution of storm centers -- the PMP storm must be unrealistic," That <br />was not stated explicitly, but that tone did emerge in some of the <br />writing and is not appropriate, <br /> <br />The multipie centers found with the 1935 and 1965 cases are still not <br />proof that there could not be a largerlbroader center more like the NWS <br />design storm, No mention of the Pawnee Creek storm of July 29, 1997 was <br />made, but it was more of a single broader center -- the type which may <br />produce the largest PMF. This storm really should be one that you look at <br />closely even though it was some distance away from the Immediate Front <br />Range,and in an area with fewer orographic and barrier influences, Both <br />the Fort Collins and Pawnee Creek storms had late evening peak rainfalls <br />-- similar to the NWSSSP -- suggesting that modei is not unrealistic for <br />Front Range extreme storms in general. <br /> <br />Your analyses to date do not yet provide full insight into orography as it <br />applies to the Cherry Creek Basin. As we have seen from most of the <br />extreme storms along the Front Range including the Buckhorn 1938 storm, <br />Big Thompson 1976 and Fort Collins and Pawnee Creek storms of 1997 along <br />with the 1935 and 1965 storms, orography alone does not determine storm <br />locations -- but it does affect the locations when combined with other <br />meteorological factors, Basins that are immediately at the base of <br />steeper terrain along the Front Range seem to have the highest chances of <br />experiencing extreme events and areas (like Cherry Creek) situated just <br />east of this region appear to have iower probabilities of experiencing <br />extreme events -- but it doesn't mean these events will not occur or will <br />not be as large when they do occur, There is ample evidence from 1935 and <br />again in 1965 that extreme storms do visit the region and will <br />again, The fact that two of Colorado's largest extreme events occurred <br />so close to the basin should definitely raise a red flag to all <br />Investigators, How to apply what we know to the Cherry Creek situation <br />is definitely a big challenge and we will not answer all questions, <br />However, I do hope you will be able to add a bit more substance to your <br />sensitivity analysis regarding the impacts of orography on the basin, <br /> <br />Task 9 and 11 are addressed to my satisfaction, <br /> <br />General comment: There were many typo's in the interim report which made <br />it seem a bit rushed and carelessly prepared <br /> <br />3 <br />