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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I , I I I I (3) Damage Survey Report (DSR): Applicants submit requests for public assistance with detailed worksheets estimating the cost of repairs. FEMA or the state perform inspections (physical surveys) for each large project and "verify documentation on a portion of the small projects" (FEMA 1998). The DSR is used to obligate federal and state disaster assistance funds. The DSR obligations change as bids are received to accomplish the repair work, and computer records are updated accordingly. (4) Actual Cost: Final total costs when all projects are completed and the DSR is closed. For large disasters, closure might not occur until 4 to 5 years after the disaster event. Descriptions of the NWS procedures for obtaining flood damage estimates suggest that, in most cases, the estimates have been qualitatively similar to the IDE and certainly no better than the PDA. Indeed, NWS field offices obtain some of their estimates from FEMA's survey teams (Syction 2). Only in the largest floods (notably, the widespread flooding of the upper Mississippi basin in 1993) have extensive efforts been made to update the damage estimates over an extended period. Therefore, to estimate the errors in early damage estimates that can be expected under good conditions (that is, from officials who have systematically viewed the damage), we use FEMA records from a recent flood disaster as a case study. In February 1998, winter storms with heavy rains led to widespread flooding in Califomia. The president declared a major disaster in 41 counties, designated the "1998 California El Nino" disaster (FEMA-1203-DR). Table 5-1 shows the IDE and PDA estimates for each county under the public assistance program. It also shows the funds that had been obligated in the FEMA database as of June 1, 2001. Although the DSR has not been closed at the time of this writing, it is expected that nearly all costs have been obligated; therefore we will treat these figures as the "actual costs." The bottom line of Table 5-1 shows that total public assistance costs in the state were approximately $316 million. The PDA underestimated the total costs by only 6% ($19 million). Because no IDE was provided for several counties, the total IDE of $240 million should be compared with the total actual cost of $279 million from the matching 33 table entries. On that basis, the IDE underestimated total costs by about 14% ($39 million). Estimates for smaller units (individual counties and the "state agencies" category) are much less accurate, however. Errors in the IDE are particularly large, ranging from underestimation by $26 million (82%) in Los Angeles County to overestimation by $20 million (316%) in San Benito County. In the PDA, errors range from underestimation by $16 million (52%) in the state agencies category to overestimation by $23 million (304%) in San Bemardino County. 25