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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />METHOD 1 - UTILIZING STREAM FLOW REGRESSION RELATIONS FOR THE <br />MOUNTAIN REGION <br /> <br />From the reference titled "Estimation of Natural Streamflow Characteristics in <br />Western Colorado", a summary of regression relations for various mountain <br />regions and related regression models is provided. For the Coal Creek Basin, the <br />parameters of drainage area and overall basin slope were required in the <br />regression model. The overall basin slope was determined by averaging twenty <br />five equally spaced grid slopes within the Coal Creek Basin. Given the basin size <br />of 21 square miles and the average basin slope of 0.385 ftlft, the regression model <br />yielded a 100 year peak flow in Coal Creek of 536 cis. <br /> <br />METHOD 2 - FLOOD FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FITTING THE LOG- <br />PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION <br /> <br />Stream flow records available for Coal Creek include the period 1943 - 1946. <br />These records were measured at a U.S.G.S. gaging station upstream from the <br />Town of Crested Butte. The gaging station had a drainage area of approximately <br />8.5 square miles upstream. The reference manual utilized was "Guidelines for <br />Determining Flood Flow Frequency" Bulletin # 17B. The 1943 - 1946 gage data <br />was adjusted on a straight line proration basis for the entire 21 square mile Coal <br />Creek Basin. The two additional years of field measured data for 1978 and 1979 <br />was combined with the gaging data and the data base for the updated Log- <br />Pearson Type III Distribution was achieved. The Flood Flow Frequency Analysis <br />computer model was run with six years of data and the model yielded a 100 year <br />peak flow in Coal Creek of 815 cis. <br /> <br />METHOD 3 - UTILIZING ADJACENT DRAINAGE BASIN INFORMATION <br /> <br />To verify that 815 cis of flow as derived in Method 2 was reasonable or required <br />adjustment, various other basins were selected in the central and southwest <br />mountain areas of Colorado with longer gage records and better flow projections. <br />For the selected streams, plus Coal Creek at Crested Butte, the multiple linear <br />regression analysis computer program Minitab was utilized to obtain a best fit line <br />through the data. The three variables used in the analysis were basin slope, basin <br />area, and discharge per square mile. The variables used were based on snow <br />melt peaks for elevations above 9000 feet. Basins with somewhat similar <br />orientation, a variety of basin slopes but not extreme slopes, and a substantial area <br />above 10,000 feet in elevation, were utilized. The resultant regression equation <br />yielded a 100 year peak flow in Coal Creek, of 805 cis. <br /> <br />3 <br />