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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />survey dats. For the firat two hours, one resident measured an inten- <br /> <br /> <br />sity of 6 inches per hour using a 6-inch raingage, but did not continue <br /> <br /> <br />observations throughout the storm. Another observed a 6-inch raingage <br /> <br />for the first hour only. Two buckets, one 12 and one 13 inches deep <br /> <br /> <br />were reportedly filled and overflowing. <br /> <br />Rainfall measurements up to 13 inches are fairly reliable and based <br /> <br /> <br />on observation of rain gage data for the first 2 hours of the storm and <br /> <br /> <br />reports of buckets overtopping. Rainfall beyond 13 inches is estimated <br /> <br />based on observations of the residents comparing rainfall intensity with <br /> <br />the first two hours of the atorm. The only container observed which was <br /> <br /> <br />deeper than 13 inches had a hole in the bottom and the owner reported an <br /> <br /> <br />unknown amount of water leaked out before a measurement was taken. <br /> <br />The total rainfall for July 2-3, 1981, is shown on the isohyetal <br /> <br /> <br />map (Plate 1). The analysis was based on the minimum estimates given by <br /> <br /> <br />observers. Observations of residents in the area, as given in personal <br /> <br />interviews on July 7, 1981, are detailed in Appendix A. <br /> <br /> <br />Total rainfall probably exceeded 16 inches in some locations, and <br /> <br /> <br />averaged in excess of 11.8 inches over the Frijole Creek basin. The <br /> <br />isohyetal diagram (Plate 1) was drawn based on the point estimates of <br /> <br /> <br />total rainfall described in Appendix A, the probable storm shape based <br /> <br />on satellite photos, radar data, and local topographic features. The <br /> <br /> <br />storm shown in Plate 1 is based on relatively few data points, and <br /> <br />probably represents a conservative estimate of the July 2-3 event; it is <br /> <br /> <br />likely that cumulative precipitation was much higher than shown in the <br /> <br />higher elevations southwest of the indicated storm center, possibly <br /> <br /> <br />totaling 20 to 24 inches in some areas. <br /> <br /> <br />100-Year Precipitation <br /> <br /> <br />Based on information published by The National Oceanic and Atmos- <br /> <br /> <br />pheric Administration (NOAA), the 100-year, 4-hour storm in the Frijole <br /> <br /> <br />Creek basin would result in 3.1 inches of precipitation. A 100-year <br /> <br /> <br />storm is a storm of such magnitude that, over the long term, it would be <br /> <br /> <br />expected to occur an average of once every 100 years. The storm on July <br /> <br /> <br />2-3 was almost four times as large as the 100-year, 4-hour event. <br /> <br />IV-3 <br />