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<br />e <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />PSOO-9 <br /> <br />Steven Jensen <br />Wellington Emergency Management <br />PO Box 2199 <br />Wellington, NEW ZEALAND <br />Telephone: 64 4 460 0658 <br /> <br />City Risk: <br />GIS-based holistic modeling of earthquake impacts in <br />Wellington, New Zealand <br /> <br />While the first half of the 20111 century was characterized by a redistribution of wealth and the <br />latter halfby a redistribution of power, the first part of the 21" century may be characterized by a <br />redistribution of risk. The reasons for this are clear. About 80"/0 of a world population of six <br />billion are living in metropolitan areas. Many of these swelling urban areas are vulnerable to <br />natural and technological disaster, with people continuing to settle in marginal areas. Recent <br />disasters have demonstrated how brittle our cities have become, with vulnerable populations at <br />increasingly higher levels of risk despite advances in our understanding of disaster issues. Disaster <br />will be a critical issue for many communities. <br /> <br />The global upsurge in urban growth is compounded by the increasing complexity and <br />interdependency within the infrastructure and economies supporting these communities. Given <br />this complexity, managing growth is a difficult task as city planners, risk managers, and others are <br />confronted with the need to build more resilient and sustainable communities. GIS-based <br />modeling systems help us to do this with the rigor that is required, but it is only a tool. The human <br />element is still essential. We need local-level practitioners with knowledge and passion, balanced <br />with a pragmatic approach, that can use these GIS-based modeling to forge out holistic solutions <br />to the complex problem of disaster. <br />