Laserfiche WebLink
<br />meteorological conditions associated with a flash <br />flood over many spatial and temporal scales, <br />In the following sections we present a meteorologi- <br />cal overview of the FCL flood, First, a discussion of <br />the climatology of extreme rainfall events in Colorado <br />is presented in section 2, Section 3 discusses rain gauge <br />data and presents accumulated rainfall totals for the <br />entire 2-day event (e.g" 27-28 July 1997), as well as <br />the 6-h time period encompassing the flash flood. <br />Section 4 presents an overview of the synoptic envi- <br />ronment, followed in section 5 by a presentation of <br />surface mesoanalyses, Section 6 summarizes the <br />preconditioning of the large-scale environment and <br />subsequent triggering of convection over FCL. <br />Multiparameter and dual-Doppler radar observations <br />including radar estimates of accumulated rainfall are <br />described in section 7. <br /> <br />2. Climatology of extreme rain events <br />in Colorado <br /> <br />The Fort Collins flood occurred in a synoptic en- <br />vironment that is commonly associated with severe <br />weather in northeastern Colorado (Doswell 1980), <br />and during a time of year when extreme weather <br />events are expected in northeastern Colorado (yY eaver <br />and Doesken 1990), Indeed, even in the semiarid cli- <br />'~-of Colorado, extreme rainfall events with local <br />lliIlIIIitrlds exceeding 4 in, in less than 24 h occur several <br />~ each year somewhere in the state, However, <br />Mms producing greater than 10 in, of rain are rare, <br />A recent climatological investigation of extreme pre- <br />cipitation events in Colorado (McKee and Doesken <br />1997) showed a distinct tendency for the largest events <br />recorded during the twentieth century to occur at or <br />near the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains, ex- <br />tending from the lower foothills eastward onto the <br />western fringe of the Great Plains, Prior to July of <br />1997, there had been seven documented storms this <br />century that produced at least 10 in, of rain within <br />24 h, Several other Front Range storms have produced <br />excessive rainfall but at lower rates and over longer <br />periods of time, For example, an early May storm in <br />1969 produced close to 15 in, of precipitation over <br />a 4-day period in the mountains and foothills imme- <br />diately northwest of Denver (Fig. 2), The most pub- <br />licized of Colorado's extreme rainfall events is the <br />Big Thompson storm (e.g" Maddox et al. 1978; <br />Caracena et ai, 1979) of 31 July 1976 (Fig, 2), a can- <br />yon flash flood that resulted in 139 confirmed fatali- <br /> <br />194 <br /> <br />ties and a list of seven additional missing persons <br />(Gruntfest 1996), <br />Based on an examination of more than 300 of <br />Colorado's heaviest precipitation events since the late <br />1800s, the vast majority of these events were found <br />to occur between mid-April and mid-October but with <br />a double peaked distribution. The first peak occurs late <br />in May and early June, associated with synoptic-scale <br />quasi-stationary late spring storms. These storms carry <br />moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi <br />Valley westward to the Front Range of the Rockies <br />(Fig, 2), where it typically falls as widespread pre- <br />cipitation of moderate intensity with localized convec- <br />tive and orographic enhancement The maximum <br />precipitation from these storms is typically found <br />along the eastern foothills of the Rockies, A distinct <br />lull in the frequency of extreme rainfall events occurs <br />from late June into Jnly, This is followed by the sec- <br />ond and greater peak in storm frequency from late July <br />extending into early September with a pronounced <br />maximum frequency from the last week of July into <br />the first few days of August These summer storms <br />are highly convective, often small in areal extent, <br />and have occurred in nearly all parts of Colorado. <br />However, the greatest of these, in terms of maximum <br />rainfall, have occurred east of the mountains and of- <br />ten near the eastern foothills of the Rockies, The FCL <br />storm of 28 July 1997 fits very neatly within this cli- <br />matological description. <br /> <br />3. Rain gauge measurements of <br />accumulated rainfall for the FCL flood <br /> <br />Immediately following the 27-28 July FCL events, <br />the Colorado Climate Center began an extensive ef- <br />fort to document the rainfall (e,g" Figs, 3a,b), Using <br />radio, newspaper, and broadly distributed electronic <br />mail requests in combination with traditional door-to- <br />door and phone surveys, rainfall reports were solicited <br />from all possible sources. In all, more than 300 rain- <br />fall reports were gathered, 90% of which were based <br />on rain gauge measurements, As much information as <br />possible was gathered for each rain report including <br />gauge type, exposure, observing procedures, latitude <br />and longitude of the gauge location, and any additional <br />human observations to supplement the gauge measure- <br />ments, Upon completion of data gathering activities, <br />gauge locations and amounts deemed highly reliable <br />(110 reports for the night of 28 July; 209 reports for <br />the two-day event, 27-28 July) were plotted on a map <br /> <br />Vol, 80, No.2, February 1999 <br />