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<br />Omission of these smaller streams, however, has its rationale. <br /> <br />Detailed mapping is costly and time consuming, and time and funds are <br /> <br />curve drawn through the two smaller events can be extrapolated to esti- <br /> <br />mate the discharge for a rarer flood frequency. If the log Pearson Type <br /> <br />III distribution recommended by the Water Resources Council (10) is used, <br /> <br />an estimate of the skew is needed as well. <br /> <br />The basic equation is <br /> <br />illusion, especially among local authorities and citizens, that the un- <br /> <br />mapped areas are not subject to much damage. <br /> <br />limited. Consequently, the Flood Insurance Administration (8) permits <br /> <br />approximate flood plain mapping if time and funds are not available for <br /> <br />studying the entire community in detail. Furthermore, during the waiting <br /> <br />period before detailed flood hazard information becomes available, a city <br /> <br />must regulate development in flood hazard areas as best it can. Here a <br /> <br />definite need exists for an approximate method of estimating flood risks <br /> <br />until thorough studies can be made. <br /> <br />The proposed a~proximate method begins from the fact that flows or <br /> <br />stages for floods of relatively small magnitude can be estimated more <br /> <br />quickly and with more confidence than can those for rarer floods (3, 5). <br /> <br />Many engineers and municipal engineering departments have had most of <br /> <br />their experience in estimating floods of small magnitude for such purposes <br /> <br />as drainage structures. The U. S. Geological Survey has done considerable <br /> <br />work in defining flood magnitudes by frequency and published their results <br /> <br />in reports that present regression equations and graphical procedures for <br /> <br />est:l,.mating flood magnitudes. For many small baains, this is the only <br /> <br />hydrologic data that is available; however, many of these reports only <br /> <br />log Q" X + K s ........................(1) <br /> <br />where Q is the discharge in cfs, x is the mean of the logs of recorded <br /> <br />annual flood peaks. s is the standard deviation of the logs of annual <br /> <br />flood peaks, and K is a frequency factor which for the log Pearson dis- <br /> <br />tribution varies with the skew(G) of the logs of recorded annual flood <br /> <br />peaks. <br /> <br />Eq. I can be used to extrapolate flood peaks for rarer floods from <br /> <br />flood peaks for more ordinary floods by introducing a "disCharge index <br /> <br />slope" (018) defined as the difference between the log of the 2S-year <br /> <br />flood and the log of the lO-year flood discharges. From this definition, <br /> <br />log Q25 - log QlO = x + K25 s - 0l + KlO 8) <br /> <br />DIS .. s (K2S - KlO) ...................... (2) <br /> <br />which shows that the "discharge index slope" relates to the standard de- <br /> <br />viation and the frequency factor which depends on the skew. Similarly, <br /> <br />cover floods up to about s 50-year return period. In comparison, the <br /> <br />lOO-year flood is legislatively mandated for most flood insurance and <br /> <br />regulatory purposes. <br /> <br />log Qf - log Q10 .. s (Kf - KlO) ......................... (3) <br /> <br />The standard deviation can be eliminated by dividing. Thus, <br /> <br />Normalized DischarRe Curves <br /> <br />If discharges for two flood frequencies are known and a log normal <br /> <br />distribution is assumed for the annual flood peaks, a flood frequency <br /> <br />log Qf - log QIO <br /> <br />Kf - KlO <br /> <br />..,..",..,.. ..(4) <br /> <br />ND <br /> <br />log Q25 - log QlO K25 - KlO <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />where ND is defined as the normalized discharge. Any two frequencies could <br />3 <br />