BOARD02388

• Board Meeting Date: 3/21/2006
• Description: Flood Section - Long Term Flood and Water Availability Outlook - Presentation by John Henz
• Board Meetings - Doc Type: Memo

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!Rio Grande
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!Dolores/San Juan/SM

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'65% Normal

80%

'80% Normal

85%

Let's look at problem basins for this spring runoff and the summer

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tampa-White: Steamboat

pper Colorado: Eagle, Blne

Eont Range: Ft COIli:S_~ D~e-;C~-Jui) ~_
ISW/Cent, Mountains: early July Monsoon
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!Fire season
6:- Front Range and SE Plai~s
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. !May Runoff
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!May Runoff

~iash floods
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!May heat

Cool, wet spring will melt into a mid-May "heat wave"
Increasing snows in the Blne and Eagle River basins could spelltronble,
No breaks like we received last year.

Flooding is likely!
Runoff peak: mid-May into early June

To summarize OUf Mar~Apr forecast
. The next 6-8 weeks will be qnite stormy and cool with above normal precipitation,
The mountain basins along and north of 1-70 will maintain 115%-150%+ of normal
(Yampa-White and Colorado),
The mountain basins south of 1-70 will play "catch-up" with more frequent spring storms
bnt fall below normal (65 %-80%),
NE plains will get a spring blizzard and rebound to near normal or aboY<, SE = dry?

To summarize our May-J nne Outlook
Look for a 5-8 day Hheat wave" in lVlay. Could produce rllnoff "gush" of nooding.
Look for a brief but nasty retufn of the "fire season" in fvlay along the Front Range.
. June looks to be stormy with severe weather and flooding issues.
Monsoon should return in early July to "cool" the fire hazard in southern potion of state.
Flood response programs
Daily Flood Threat Bulletin
. Weekly flood threat outlooks
Daily Storm Total Radar-Precipitation map