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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />~r/, <br />.". 'f <br /> <br />Source: John Henz, Certified Consulting Meteorologist, HDR Engineering, Inc Denver Colorado, <br />iohn.henz@hdrinc.com, 303.764.1582 <br />'Forecast Observed Hit or Miss <br /> <br />Neutral period ahead <br />'EI Nino wanes <br /> <br />Wk EI Nino changes to <br />_cool, neutral <br /> <br />Wet Spring in SW and on Wet spring statewide <br />E. Plains <br /> <br />Alternating periods of <br />.hot,dry and cool, cloudy <br /> <br />Moderated runoff with <br />,minor flooding issues <br /> <br />^MiniwJune 15 event on <br />Palmer Divide <br /> <br />'Score <br /> <br />One 4 day stretch in May <br />-90F <br /> <br />,Overbank flooding in SW <br />,quite pronounced <br /> <br />Colorado Springs flash <br />,flood with 2 dead <br /> <br />DDDDlJDDDDDU <br /> <br />Last year's 2005 Snow Water Equivalent Forecasts <br /> <br />Hit! <br /> <br />V,hit <br />.1J2miss <br /> <br />4 weeks of hit and one <br />week of hot miss! <br /> <br />% hit <br />Yz miss <br /> <br />Unfortunate hit <br /> <br />4.0 hits, 1.0 misses <br />-80% (75 % 2004) <br /> <br />Hit the "on again, off again" runoff as series of storms kept mountains cool and cloudy. <br />Correctly anticipated no heat wave producing a runoff gusher, <br />Over-forecast SWE in South Platte by 16% aud under-forecast SWE in Arkansas by 17%. <br />Hit the rest +/- 5%, <br /> <br />Basin Specific SWE forecasts relative to normal with confidence rating <br /> <br />:Basin <br />Plains <br /> <br />;NorthlSouth Platte <br />'Plains <br /> <br />ColoradoN ampa- White <br /> <br />:Gunnison <br /> <br />:Arkansas <br />Plains <br /> <br />SWE: May 1 <br />:Precipitation <br /> <br />.130% Normal <br />110% Normal <br /> <br />125% Normal <br /> <br />110% Normal <br /> <br />Normal +/- 5% <br />75% Normal <br /> <br />Confidence <br /> <br />85% <br />80% <br /> <br />85% <br /> <br />75% <br /> <br />75% <br />65% <br />