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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />- 2 - <br /> <br />(1) contiInJed c.""Op yield increases, (2) relatively IlDderate increases in <br />real energy orices. and (3) increases in the real price of agricultural <br />COIIIIDdities. As~tion (3) is inconsistent with recent trends-the price <br />of com today is $1 a bushel less than it was a year ago. <br /> <br />Under less ",timistic asSUllPtions, the baseline future shows drastic re- <br />ductions inJ.rri.?,ated acreage: 60 percent decline by 1990, and a 90 percent <br />drop by 200c <br /> <br />Other scenarios were also developed. Water conservation makes a difference: <br />an intense effort to ~ ~tion efficiency CXluld cut projected <br />losses in irrigated acreage 1Il . Additional restrictions on ~ter <br />~ have little additional effect since liDst faDlV3rS are already usmg ess <br />water per acre than the allowable ma:x::inun because of rising energy CXlSts. <br />As for increas~ water ~ the marginal value of an acre-foot of water <br />is less than ~ in addi net income to the agricultural producer. <br />'!he CXlst of ~rting water from the Missouri River is approximately $500 <br />an acre-foot. ('!he Trans-O:ltnty project for ~rting water from the <br />South Platte to the High Plains would provide water at approximately $200 <br />an acre-foot.) <br /> <br />Six-state results show that, under baseline conditions, crop pronn<"tion for <br />e SIX-State lala . is . ected to increase stbtanEalI 0Vf!r <br />e ear '. '1his surprising cone usion ts the optimistic <br />asSl.lqlt:LOOS developed by the general contractor: higher crop <br />yield and price ass~tions IIEan that fanIm's will continue to irrigate <br />until the water is physically gone. T.hder these "bullish" asll1.Iq)tions, <br />higher energy prices are no significant deterrent to puqling. Production <br />for the region is projected ~ uP becalJSe irrigated acreage losses in <br />CDloraclo, Texas, au:aIiOiiB, , and New Mexi.CXl are offset by new lands <br />brought under irrigation in Nebraska, where the Ogallala is still relatively <br />undeveloped. (Each state, including Nebraska, will have local dislocations <br />as land reverts from irrigated to dryland.) <br /> <br /> <br />RECD'MEND<\TION> FOR ACITON <br /> <br />Steps have already been taken to ilq:llerrent the 21 recootlE!rlda.tions developed <br />by the CDloraoo Higj:1 Plains Arlmsory Cornnittee. The CDoperative Extension <br />Service is adding an irri~tion specialist in the High Plains of CDloraoo. <br />'Ihrougj:l a grant from the CDlorado Conmission on Higj:1er Education, CSU is <br />CXlnducting a systematic evaluation of altemate~CM-water ~ with eco- <br />nomic potential for eastern O:lloraoo. A Tectmi. Coordina~ CDmnittee <br />of local. state, and federal agencies and private organizat1Ol1S has met <br />twice to iIqlrove coordi.nation in research, education, and technical assist- <br />ance to High Plains irrigators. The CDlorado office of the Soil Conserva- <br />tion Service has received additional funds to target the Og;>ll::ll.. for <br />special attention; a draft plan of action has been prepared, scheduled <br />for implementation October 1, 1982. ~eting;> have been held in eastern <br />CDloraoo to discuss the creation of an eastern CDlorado counterPart to . <br />Club 20 to prtlIIDte regional interests, including responses to aquifer de- <br />pletion. <br />