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<br />_J <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />Supply Outlook Report! "most probable" forecast (50% chance ofexceedance) as of the <br />first day of that month for flows on the Arkansas River at Salida ("Forecast") is less <br />than 70% of average. The Forecast as of June I in any year shall determine the <br />effectiveness of the RICD water right for June I through November 14. For example, if <br />the Forecast as of May I is less than 70% of average, then the RICD water right shall <br />not be in effect from May I through May 31; and if the Forecast as of June 1 is less <br />than 70% of average, then the RICD water right shall not be in effect through <br />November 14. <br /> <br />2956547_2.DOC <br /> <br />I In the event this index ceases to be published, the Applicant and the CWCB will agree <br />upon a substitute stream flow forecasting source or method that will provide <br />substantially the same information. <br /> <br />2 <br />