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<br /> <br />considerably since early February (from just over 70% to 93% as of today). For the next two months, the <br />eastern half of Colorado should continue to receive above-normal moisture due to this influence. Competing <br />climate factors reduce the chances for a wet spring in the San Juans and New Mexico in particular. NOAA <br />CDC mission is advancing understanding and predictions of climate variability and more information can be <br />found at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/index.html <br /> <br />National Weather Service - Treste Huse <br /> <br />Treste's forecasts are also posted on the CWCB Web <br />site at http://cwcb.state.co.us/t1ood watch!. Treste <br />Huse gave the NWS 8-14 forecasts calling for colder <br />temperatures and possible precipitation. Short-term <br />forecasts are available on the NWS - Boulder website. <br />She also showed GOES satellite images of storm <br />systems and cloudy weather lined up in the Pacific <br />Ocean that appears to be headed northwest and through <br />Colorado. Graphics came from the NOAA - NWS _ <br />Meteorological Development lab who's mission is: <br />Develop and Implement Scientific Techniques into <br />National Weather Service Operations, Furnish a Full <br />Spectrum of Forecast Guidance, Provide Interactive <br />Tools for Decision Assistance and Forecast ~. ,~. <br />Preparation, Conduct Comprehensive Evaluations of <br />NWS Products. Visit this site at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdll. <br /> <br /> <br />HDR Engineering (Hydro-Met) - William Badini <br />The HDR forecasts are also posted on the CWCB website at http://cwcb.state.co.us/t1ood watch!. Bill <br />explained the difference between the meteorological drought when there is low precipitation and the <br />hydrologic drought, which is a hangover from empty reservo irs, low storage and low stream flows and dry <br />soils. John Henz also has a drought presentation and a long term forecast posted on the CWCB website. A <br />summary of the Bill Badini presentation is as follows: <br /> <br />Current Pacific storm track shows another 7- <br />10 stonns poised to cross Colorado by mid <br />June and is predicting an average monsoon <br />season. <br />Peak snowmelt runofTtimes may be delayed <br />by cool spring temperatures and coincide with <br />spring storm periods and crate a higher <br />flooding threat in the Colorado Springs to <br />north of Fort Collins areas through June 20'h <br />Post El-Nino swnmers feature dramatic <br />increases in May and June thunderstorms, <br />which can create more severe weather and <br />flash flooding. <br />2002 bum areas could face severe threats <br />(Hayman, Missionary Ridge and Coal Seam fire bums). They could face mud, debris flows, flooding <br />and water quality issues. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Multivariate ENSO Index for the strongest <br />E1 Nino events since 1950 va. current conditiODl <br /> <br /> <br />i <br />.. <br />. <br />Q <br />... <br />. <br />N <br />'Il <br />~ <br />~ ., <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />., <br /> <br />~ <br />" <br />~ <br /> <br />~ <br />j <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br />, <br />~ <br /> <br />~ <br />li <br />> <br /> <br />, <br />i <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br />3 <br />