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10/02/97 02:25pm From:Monica V. Olson Page 001 of 002 This FAX sent with evaluation version of FaxMail Network for Windows .~ .... ~ - RECEIVED OCT 2 1997 Colorado Water Conservation Board October l, 1997 Colorado Water Conservation Board 1313 Sherman Street, Room 721 Denver, Colorado 80203 Re: Western Weather Consultants/TelskilSWCD application for cloud-seeding permit Dear Mr. Bill Stanton, This letter has been prepared in response to a permit request by Western Weather Consultants for cloud-seeding a target area that includes the Telluride ski area and Ophir. Ophir has built around the known, naturally occurring avalanche risks as documented in a 1974 evaluation of avalanche hazard prepared for the Town of Ophir by the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research of the University of Colorado and by Arthur Meers, an avalanche consultant for the Colorado Geological Survey. Western Weather Consultants and its sponsors, Telski and the Southwest Water Conservation District (SWCD) should read this document. It was not obvious at the Sept. 24 public hearing that the seeding team had ever heard of Ophir, much less the Spring Gulch avalanche path. As part of the target area, Ophir has an overwhelming concern for the potential of increased risk to life and property that may result from the unnatural activity of cloud-seeding. The amount of snowfall produced by seeding does not of itself necessarily determine an increased avalanche risk. The amount of snow, where it accumulates, when it accumulates, how it is redistributed by heavy Ophir winds, and how much exposure to sun it receives - all create a increased risk of avalanche. It takes very little to trigger an avalanche when the conditions are in imbalance. By unnaturally adding snow to this equation, the imbalance is potentially more extreme and the risk of avalanche danger is more likely. We live in one of the most avalanche-prone mountain ranges in the world. While there are now so few seeded areas in Colorado, how can the seeding of this particular area be justified? The northern San Juans have a "radiation snow climate", significantly different from the standard areas of avalanche research (1974 study). Does Western Weather's expertise cover these unique conditions? Avalanches in Ophir have a 5% probability of occurrence in any year. There is a 39% chance that a home in an avalanche path will be hit within a lO year period. Why create an unnatural acceleration of an already dangerous natural cycle? Heavy snows fall in March and April after the seeding period (November- January). Seasonal snowfall can not be accurately predicted during the seeding period. Seasonal avalanche danger can not be predicted during the seeding period. The forecast for this year, for example, calls for a very light November and a very heavy March. Can Western Weather predict