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<br />,.- <br /> <br />A Statistical Re3nalysis of the Replicated Climax [ ;lnd <br />Wintertime Orographic Cloud Seeding F.Kpcrim~nts <br /> <br />II, <br /> <br />Paul W. Mielke. Jr.l, Clenn W. Brier2, Le....is O. GrantZ, <br />, 2.3 2 <br />Gerald J. Mulvey . and Paul N. Rosenzweig <br /> <br />Colorado State University, Fort Collies. CO 805Z3 <br /> <br />Abstt'.'1ct <br /> <br />A reanalysis of the Climax I and II ey.periments is described. The <br /> <br />concern prompting this reanalysis is a suggestio~ arising from Colorado <br /> <br />State University analyses of extended area effects. Those analyses suggested <br /> <br />a region-wide pattern of precipitation that, by chance. may have favored the <br /> <br />randomly selected seeding days for some of the important meteorological <br /> <br />partitions used in earlier analyses. In order to address thl$ concern, this <br /> <br />reanalysis employs excellent covariate relationships developed before the <br /> <br />initiation of Climax II and which aceount for over half of the target <br /> <br />variability for most meteorological partitions of major interest (e.g.. <br /> <br />~.rm"~p-mb temperatures and southwe$t 700-mb wind directions). The <br /> <br />statistieal evidence of seeding induced increases associated with this <br /> <br />reanalysis is generally much stronger than the previous analysis which did <br /> <br />not utilize the covariate data. For example, the joint one-sided Wilcoxon <br /> <br />test statistic,p-value for testing the null hypothesis that s~eding did not <br /> <br />1aduee 4 precipitAtion incre~se during varm 500-mb temperatures of the <br /> <br />Climax I and II experiments is nov 0.0013 compared to 0.05S0 with the <br /> <br />previous analysis vhlch did not utilize the covariate data. However. the <br /> <br />reanalysis also indicates that previous estilJ\4tes of increase.s attributed <br /> <br />to seeding based strictly on ratios of seeded to non-seeded precipitation <br /> <br />amount means are apparently too large. For example. the esti~ted <br /> <br />precipitation increase of the combtned Climax r and II data for the ~arm <br /> <br />500-mb temperature partition is reduced from Gl p~rcent to 25 perc~nt when" <br /> <br />usln~ the full set (If Jat~ as ~opluv~rl in (hi~ re~nnly~is <br /> <br />I <br />\~ <br />I <br /> <br />A-J [--3 <br />