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<br />demonstrate the effectiveness of a ne\.... seeding approach. Research programs arc inherently <br />more costly than operational programs. Research activities could be superimposed on some of <br />the operational programs. as has been done in programs such as the Bureau of Reclamation's <br />Weather Damage Modification Program that is currently active and the earlier National Oceanic <br />and Atmospheric Administration's Atmospheric Modilication Program conducted in the 1980's <br />and 1990's. Additional federal funds would be needed to perfonn such "piggyback" programs. if <br />desired. <br /> <br />The anticipated effects from well designed and conducted operational seeding programs <br />range from 5-15% increases in precipitation. Streamflow model simulations perfonned by the <br />National \Veather Service. River Forecast Center located in Salt Lake City. Utah for the Upper <br />Basin States of Colorado. Utah and Wyoming predict increases of650.500 acre feet of April <br />through December runolT into Lake Ilowell uuring an average year resulting from the conduct of <br />~ cloud seeding programs assuming a 10% increase in October through March precipitation. <br />Similar projections for existing operational seeding program areas indicate an estimated average <br />increase of 576.504 acre feet of October through March runoO" into Lake Powell in an average <br />year. assuming a 10% increase in precipitation. The total from ~ and existing areas \vould be <br />1.227.004 acre feet. Obviously. the same percentage increases in precipitation in wet years <br />would produce higher amounts of runoff and lower amounts in dry years. Sc:eding suspensions <br />in very wet winters would limit the expected total increase from such winters. Ample storage <br />would t)'pically be available in the tributary and especially the main stem reservoirs sllch as Lake <br />Powell to contain any amounts of expected increases in runolI even from wet and very wet <br />winters. It is estimated that an additional 154.000 acre feet of annual runofI could be generated <br />from new seeding programs in the lower Colorado River Basin of Arizona. The total estimah.'d <br />ll\iCrage potential would therefore be I.JHI.OO~ acre feet. Some of this potential is currently <br />being realized through the conduct of existing programs in Colorado and Utah. but no attempt <br />has been made in this study to quantify the amount of runoff being generated by these programs. <br />Means of augmenting some of these existing programs arc contained in this study. No attempt <br />was made in this study to quantify the additional streamflow that might be generated through <br />such augmentation of existing programs. In a sense. these latter t\\'o issues arc olTsetting: some <br />increases in streamllow from existing programs are currently being realized which would 100....er <br />the estimated increases whereas enhancements of existing programs operati()I1s would increase <br />these estimates. <br /> <br />A preliminary estimate of the costs associated with developing new operational programs <br />and augmenting existing ones for the four states on an annual basis is $6.965.000. Design <br />studies for each of the new potential operational areas arc advisable in order to customize cloud <br />seeding activities for spt'cific areas. The above estimated costs include a reservation of 15% of <br />the total funds for evaluations of the elTectiveness of the cloud seeding in the ~operational <br />areas. Both statistical studies and physical measurements (e.g.. detection of silver in snow that <br />could be attributed to the seeding agent. silver iodide) could be performed. The approximate <br />cost of .he estimated additional water which could be produced through cloud seeding is <br />estimated to anrage S 5.00 /acre foot. Estimates of the value of the additional water could be <br />used to assess the benefit/cost aspect of the proposed projects. <br />