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<br />based upon analysis of precipitation in areas downwind ofrcsearch and operationally oricnted <br />cloud seeding programs. In a revicw paper on this topic. Long (2001) provides information from <br />a variety of both wintcr and summer programs. One wintcr research program that is pcrhaps most <br />rclevant to \\'inter timc programs was one conductcd by Colorado State University scientists in <br />the Climax. Colorado area. This area is located in a mountainous area located in the Central <br />Colorado Rockies. This randomized seeding program was conducted in two phases that came to <br />be known as Climax I and Climax II. Quoting from long (2001). "Janssen. Meltsen and Grant <br />(1974) investigated dowm....ind effccts of the Climax 1 and II projects. They noted that their <br />investigation was post hoc and as such was exploratory rather than confirmatory. In order to <br />dcteet downwind precipitation effects drifting from the Climax target area various time lags <br />ranging from 3 to 187 hours of precipitation data from hourly stations in dowmvind locales were <br />considered. Significant ratios of seeded to not-seeded precipitation. with low probabilities of <br />being due to chance. were found downwind east and northeast of the Climax area. These ratios <br />were in the range of 1.15 to 1.25 during the 3-12 hour time lag period:' This suggests increases <br />in prccipitation on the order of 15-25% dowm....ind of the intended target area. Long (2001) <br />provides a summary statement in his paper as follows: "Dowmvind precipitation cffeets have <br />been observed in gcographic areas anu time frames that arc about the same magnitudc as primary <br />effects intcnued for the target area. There is little evidence ofa decrease in prccipitation outside <br />the target area:' <br /> <br />An cxample of an analysis of potential dowm....ind effects from an operational wintcr <br />program is found in Solak et al. 2003. This paper examined the precipitation that fell in areas <br />located in eastern and southeastern Utah and western Colorado located downwind of a long-term <br />winter program that has bcen conducted most \....imers sincc 1974 in the central and southcrn <br />Wasatch Moulltains of Utah. The abstract from this papcr is as follows: "Estimations of cffccts <br />on precipitation downwind of a long-standing operational snowpack augmentation project in <br />Utah arc made. using all adaptation of the historical target/control rcgression technique which <br />has been ust:d to estimate the seasonal effccts over morc than twcnty scasons within the project's <br />targct area. Target area analyses of Dect:mber-March high clevation prccipitation data for this <br />project indicate an overall scason-average increase of about 14%. Thc downwind analyses <br />indicate increases of similar magnitude to thosc for the targct...extcnding to about 100 miles <br />downwind." <br /> <br />Toxicity of Scedine Al!cnls <br /> <br />By far the most common seeding agent in usc today on wintcr orographic cloud seeding <br />programs is silver iodide. The potential cnvironmcntal impacts of silver iodide have been studied <br />cxtensively. Klein (1978) in a book entitled "Environmental Impacts of Artificiallcc Nucleating <br />Agents" concludes that '"The major environmental concerns about nucleating agents (cffects on <br />plant growth. game animals. and fish. t:te.) appear to represent ncgligible environmental hazards. <br />The more subtle potential effects of silver-based nucleating agents. sllch as thcir possible ability <br />to potentiate the movcment or cffects of other materials of environmental conct:m. or to <br />inlluenee thc activity of microorganisms in soils and aquatic environments after being <br />bioconcentrated by plants. warrant continued research and monitoring. Effects. if they occur. arc <br />not expected to involve unacceptable risks. The long~tcnn lISC of silvcr iodidc and the confidence <br />which the weather modification profession has in dclivery systems and in the efficacy of this <br />