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~~, r. (t~1 J C:Ol POl WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 94-18 OIR~ SC AOC F I l E FOR THE PERIOO AUGUST 27 - SEPTEMBER 4, 1994 General Interest: Two items need to be amended about what was said in last week's newslett$r pertaining to the recent KanSAS Water Office evaluation of the Western KansQs Weathsr Modification program: First, the evaluator, Dr. Eklund, has revised his finding ot a 28% reduction in crop-hail damage down to 27% on his "target - control" approach. The .. target" was a continuously participating 6- county area within the Western Kansas weather Modification prorJram area of operations betw8Eln 1979 and 1993. 'l'he "control" area was an 8-county area in Northwestern Kansas. Second, his study seemed to give the imprassio~ that the cost-to-benefit ratio of 1 to 37 was calculated upon the entire program cost for those years. Instead, the costs were oalculated only on the combined amount each ot the target area counties contributed. Therefore, my estimate of a 1 to 75 cost-to-benefit ratio was in error. Dr. Eklund indicated there was nearly $60 million in crop-hail savings for the six target area counties OVer the 15-year period of study. This being the case, since the total target area averaged 12.2 counties per year, the total crop value of for hail reduction over this 15-year period might well have been around $120 million, or an average Qf $8 million per year, using the I-to-37 ratio Dr. Eklund found. , ==..~=c=====:=============~=~=~~=~;~~=~~~=~~~~~~=~a..===_=====_$* OPERATIONS (All times given are CDT): There were 3 ob$ervatlon flights flown on both days: August 28th and September 2nd. AUQUST 28th ~ OPERATIONAL DAY #49: Shortly after ~undown explosive intensification of new storm development built into a NE-SW line across Northwest Kansas inclUding Wallace and Greeley eounties. All planes were scrambled to the severe storms at 8:30 p.~. One major storm in this line of storms moved ENE from north-central Greeley into southern and southeastern Wallace where it dissipated. By the time the aircraft arrived on the other severe storms in the line over western Greeley, the storms began dying---about 4S quickly aa they had started. Two planes started seeding for hail suppression in western Greeley county, west and southwest of Tribune, at 9:02 p.m. and was joined by a third at 9:24 p.m. Rain stimulation was begun at 9:26 p.m. when updrafts became weaker. The fourth cloud bage plane went to Lakin to stand by for possible duty. seeding continued until 9:32 p.m. at which time the storms finally ceased h4ving any updrafts at cloud base. Two planes were released from action; the third flight was terminated at 9:43 p.m. During the rest ot the evening there were no severe storms nor clouds suitable for rain stimulation. Total flight time Was 4.9 hours.