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<br />From the foregoing, we conclude that the currcnt cosl of operalional weather modification <br />programs is belween onL' and twell/}' dollars per ac-fi of water produced, giving benefiHo-cost <br />ratios betwcen two to one and ten to one. Compare these figures to other, more infrastmcture- <br />intensive alternatives for increasing water supply availability. The cost of ground\'.:ater banking <br />projects (operations) is between 5150-250 per ac-tl, plus more for building facilities (Tom Ryan. <br />MWD, personal communication). Desalination is prcscntly about S700 per ac-tl and there is also <br />environmental concern with brine disposal. New dam construction costs avcrage over S2,OOO <br />per acre foot, and dams typically take 10 to 20 years to design and build3. Furthcnnore, new <br />dams and reservoirs are frcquently opposed by environmental groups. The relatively low cost of <br />weather modification is probably the main rationale that many water, hydropower and irrigation <br />agencies have lIsed to pursue it, even in the abscnce of rigorous scicntific "proof' of its etlicacy. <br />As thc demand for and the valuc ofwatcr grows in the West (Section BI), the benetit-to-cost <br />ratios of weathcr modification \...,ill makc it an increasingly attractive option for augmenting <br />water supplies. <br /> <br />5. Proposed Tasks and Timeframe <br /> <br />Since it is assumed that operational cloud seeding programs will continue in California <br />inddinitely into the future, it is proposed that the optimization of those programs be continuous <br />as well. It is further proposed that the activities hercin begin as soon as practicable, pending <br />funding. Within the uncertainties of such funding and logistics. the following is a recommended <br />timeframc for important tasks: <br /> <br />I) Pcrfonn follow-on studies of the decline in operational sceding effectiveness and potential <br />causes, mid-late 2006. <br />2) Development of a rcsearch roadmap, mid. late 2006, This will involve indepcndcnt <br />recommcndations for critical c1emcnts of applied rcsearch and thcir implemcntation, plus <br />input from an existing group of scientists and Califomia seeding opcrators <br />3) Begin ficld work to monitor atmospheric conditions relcvant to weathcr modification. winter <br />2006-2007 (sec section C3c, subsection on physical evaluation techniques). Initiate data <br />acquisition and collaboration with the lIydromctcorological Testbed (H~tT) program. <br />4) Design, deploy instrumentation. and implement an applied research program that is "piggy- <br />backed"' on one or more California operational weather moditication programs, beginning <br />winter 2007-2008, Thc specifications of such a program would be gencrally describl..>d in the <br />rcsearch roadmap, but a randomized component is essential. The steps in program <br />implemcntation would do well to approximatc those put forth by List1'!: <br />a) Conceptual model development (based partly on findings from items I and 3 above) <br />b) Site selection <br />c) Exploratory field studies (extension of activities in item 3 abovc) <br />d) Randomized experiment (to verify seeding ellccts from prior statistical studies) <br />c) E\-aluation <br />5) Analyze results from applied research program of item 4, beginning in 2008. <br />6) Begin implemcntation of research results in operational seeding programs to optimize them, <br />beginning 2009. <br /> <br />25 <br />