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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:38 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:11:56 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Sponsor Name
Utah Department of Natural Resources
Title
Propane Cloud Seeding Expiriment Overview: Wasatch Plateau, Utah, During Winter of 2003-2004
Prepared For
Utah DNR
Prepared By
Dr. Arlin Super and James A. Heimbach, Jr.
Date
3/1/2005
State
UT
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />that basically all the seeding signal was contained <br />within the 69 EUs where targeting was highly likely. <br />The same partition ~xc!uded northwest flow ETJs <br />expected to transport seeding plumes south of the <br />target gauges. <br /> <br />. A dual partition used the same wind <br />direction partition combined with exclusion of the <br />larger 20% of natural SWE amounts observed at <br />control gauge GNO. Overall results were <br />encouraging, suggesting that real seeding effects <br />were particularly detectable and pronounced when <br />natural snowfalls were no more than moderate in <br />spite of reduced correlations with the control gauge. <br /> <br />. Results were analyzed for several other <br />single and dual partitions, the latter always including <br />the southwest quadrant winds at the seeding site. <br />These results were mixed, ranging from strongly <br />suggestive to somewhat suggestive to inconclusive <br />depending upon the particular partition, gauge and <br />statistical test. A number of partitions provided <br />interesting suggestions but none of the results were as <br />convincing as the wind direction partition or entire <br />population testing. <br /> <br />. There were suggestions that seeding may <br />have been more effective when SL W cloud (icing) <br />was detected, when seeding plume temperatures were <br />warmer and when wind speeds were lighter. But <br />rigorous testing of these interesting but mostly <br />inconclusive suggestions would require a larger <br />sample size than available from the limited 3.5 month <br />experimental period. <br /> <br />Recommendations for Further Development of <br />Propane Seeding <br /> <br />The statistical results from the 2003/04 Utah <br />randomized experiment, together with supporting <br />physical observations during that period and from <br />considerable past investigation at the same location, <br />present a strong case for propane seeding <br />effectiveness in increasing mountain snowfall. To <br />date, applied research into propane seeding has been <br />limited by available resources as federal funding for <br />weather modification research has significantly <br />declined over the past several years. Those who <br />would be critical of limited progress should bear that <br />reality in mind. The randomized propane seeding <br />experiment was not designed to answer all remaining <br />questions, and a number remain. In particular, the <br />downwind extent of seeding effects received little <br />attention. But there is certainly sufficient evidence to <br />justify further development of this promising <br />emerging technology, especially given propane's <br /> <br />(," .. <br /> <br />ability to seed significantly warmer SL W cloud than <br />possible with AgI. That fact alone is a powerful <br />argument for continued development of propane <br />seeding for winter orographic clouds in the western <br />United States and elsewhere. <br /> <br />It is strongly recommended that a follow-on <br />confirmatory randomized experiment be conducted <br />on the Wasatch Plateau or similar mountain barrier <br />over at least three winters. The experiment would <br />require a minimum of three high elevation propane <br />seeding sites separated by 2-3 kIn crosswind distance. <br />A significantly larger precipitation gauge network <br />would be required extending further downwind. The <br />central downwind gauges should be targeted by at <br />least one ofthe seeding sites as wind directions <br />shifted within a reasonable range. Crosswind control <br />gauges would be maintained both south and north <br />(crosswind) of the target gauges. Because of the <br />difficulties of finding naturally protected clearings in <br />evergreen forest at higher elevations some gauges <br />might require elaborate double-fence wind shields. A <br />numerical model should be verified and used which <br />has the capability of handling local transport and <br />dispersion over the rugged terrain, and with <br />sophisticated microphysics. The experiment should <br />be provided with comprehensive physical <br />observations to include a microwave radiometer to <br />monitor the SL W cloud zone, and to provide much <br />improved microphysical measurements, both in target <br />and crosswind control locations. <br /> <br />These specific recommendations for a propane <br />seeding experiment follow the general <br />recommendations of the most recent (1998) <br />American Meteorological Society Policy Statement <br />on Weather Modification which stated, "Whereas a <br />statistical evaluation is required to establish that a <br />significant change resulted from a given seeding <br />activity, it must be accompanied by a physical <br />evaluation to confirm that the statistically observed <br />change was due to the seeding." Until that approach <br />is followed, with results published in the peer <br />reviewed scientific literature, there will continue to <br />be controversy and uncertainty concerning winter <br />orographic cloud seeding effectiveness with either <br />AgI or propane. With ever developing demands on <br />limited water resources in the western states, and <br />recent evidence of declining mountain snowpacks <br />since about 1950, policy makers should be able to <br />make decisions based on physical reality as revealed <br />through sound scientific inquiry. Such information <br />remains limited in the field of winter orographic <br />cloud seeding. In the meantime, water users <br />interested in using cloud seeding to increase the <br />winter mountain snowpack will continue to make <br /> <br />12 <br /> <br />
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