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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:27:38 PM
Creation date
10/1/2006 2:11:56 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Sponsor Name
Utah Department of Natural Resources
Title
Propane Cloud Seeding Expiriment Overview: Wasatch Plateau, Utah, During Winter of 2003-2004
Prepared For
Utah DNR
Prepared By
Dr. Arlin Super and James A. Heimbach, Jr.
Date
3/1/2005
State
UT
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />increase in IPe for the seeded distribution. with most <br />of the seeded minus nonseeded differences in the <br />range of 10 to 20 crystals per liter. These differences <br />are very similar to TAR :!D-C probe results from <br />previously published propane seeding case study <br />eXpl.'Timents which had lower propane rates released <br />from the liAS. The probability that the seeded and <br />nonseeded dilTerences ,",,'e:-re caused by seeding. as <br />suspecte:-d. cannot be staled because of the:- limited <br />sample size and lack of crosswind control <br />observations. <br /> <br />All naturallPCs. average:-d over the:- 40 minute EU <br />periods. were:- between JO to 90 per lite:-r whatever the:- <br />SWE observed by nearby gauge GTR. This is in <br />good agreement with a pre....iously published much <br />larger data set which showed that all but a small <br />ponion of natural TAR IPCs were between 10 to:!OO <br />per liter when precipitation was 0.01 inch per hour or <br />more. These findings demonstrate that nalurallPCs <br />are seldom low enough 10 prevent ma~king of <br />seeding effects in case sludies. Another important <br />implication is that natural snowfall of detectable (and <br />meaningful) rates re:-quires a minimum IPC of at least <br />10 per literan the plateau top. A minimum of20 per <br />liter is probably a more realistic threshold. Seeding <br />attempts which cannOI achieve higher IPCs are <br />unlikely to produce useful snowfall. especially since <br />seeded crystals lend to have more limited growth <br />times and. therefore. smaller masses than natural <br />crystals. <br /> <br />Summar~' or Randomilcd Elperimcnt <br /> <br />To summarize:-. the essential features of the Utah <br />randomized experiment were: <br /> <br />. Used propane releases to treal SLW cloud.. <br />which were often 100 waml to be seeded with Agl. <br /> <br />. Conducted using a seeding sile already <br />demans\nued to pro....ide rOUline targellng. <br /> <br />. Used a fully automaled operatlon with <br />seeding or placebo treatment triggen.>d by SL \\-. <br />detection. <br /> <br />. Experimental Units (EUs) blocke:'d into pairs <br />with one EU randomly seeded. <br /> <br />. Target precipitation gauges operated along <br />the e:-xpeCled seeding plume trajectory. <br /> <br />. Control gauge opt.-r3te-d crosswind to <br />monitor natural precipitation variations. <br /> <br />. Supponmg wind and other observations <br />collected for panitioning EUs into similar <br />subpopulations. <br /> <br />. Applied three sophislicated statislical testmg <br />procedures. all using the control gauge as a eO\'ariate <br />to substantially reduce the variance- caused by natural <br />snowfall fluctuations. <br /> <br />Summar~' or Statistical Conclusions <br /> <br />Resulls of slatistlcal tesling oflhe available EU <br />sample population were considered signilicant and <br />"slrongly suggestive" if the probabiliry of indicated <br />seeding-caused differences between seede:-d and <br />nonseeded EUs nut being by chance was at least 95 <br />out of 100 (a-level '" 0.05). Results were considered <br />"somewhat suggestive" if the same probability was <br />from 90 to 95 OUl of 100 (a-level = 0.06 to 0.(0). <br /> <br />Results to follow discuss the four gauges consisting <br />of (11 GSC midway between the seeding location and <br />(2) GTR. the primary intended target gauge on the <br />west edge of the plateau top. (J) GSO located I km <br />due south ofGTR also on the plateau lOp. and (4) <br />GDN.lhe only gauge downwind ofGTR. about 6.5 <br />km plume lrawl distance from the seeding sile:'. <br />Because resulls vary among the statislicallests. each <br />having different strengths and weaknesses. the <br />predominant findings of two or more tests will be <br />notoo below. The results of slalistical testing of the <br />Ulah randomized (,:'Iperiment can be briefly <br />summarized as follows: <br /> <br />. Tests of the entire sample of98 EUs without <br />any panitioning we:-re strongly suggeslive ofa real <br />seeding dTectllf increa~ed sno.... fall at gauges GSC. <br />GTR and GSO. <br /> <br />. Results for the 98 EUs were inconclusive at <br />the downwind gauge GDr" meamng no valid <br />conc\u...ion can be made whether se:-eding was <br />elTective there or not. <br /> <br />. Results for the:' 69 EL's panitionL>d by <br />south.....est quadranl seeding site winds. known ta <br />transpon seeding plumes by the primary larget. were <br />also strongly suggestiw of snowfall increases allhe <br />GTR and GSQ gauges on the:- plateau top. Results <br />were somewhat suggestive at the GSC gauge c10sesl <br />to Ihe propane dispensers. and also at the downwind <br />gauge GD!'\ furthest from the seeding localion. <br /> <br />. Comparisons of the wind direclion- <br />panitioned 69 EL's with all available 98 EUs revealed <br /> <br />" <br />
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