WMOD00058

• Contract/Permit #: #98-1
• Applicant: Western Kansas Groundwater Management
• Project Name: Western Kansas Weather Modification Program
• Date: 4/28/2001
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

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the WKW'MP have changed its program start/end dates over the years and year-to-year amount of
crop insured changes yearly. All these factors affect the number of claims sent in each year and is
part of the built-in uncertainty that exist in using these numbers, Table 5, also on page 33, breaks
down the monthly claims numbers for our target area in the WKW'MP and shows May was the
month of the greatest hail damage, atypical of most seasons because June usually is the most-
damaged month. '

On page 34, Table 6 ranks each year from least to most claims per season per county,
However, Table 7, on page 35, shows the complete list of daily hail-claim damage per county and
lists the number of hail-days in each county for the season, Table 7 shows Ford County was
damaged on more days than any other county - 28 days, with Gray at 20 days and Gove at 17.
64% ofFord County's total damage came on the two days: May 27th and May 29th amounting to
18% of the total WKW'MP number of hail claims reported. Fully 44% of the total WKW'MP hail
claims damage reports can be accounted for by the two days May 27th and May 29th, 463 claims
and 346 claims, respectively.

Table 8, on page 36, shows how WKW'MP counties fared on the worst 6 days this year.
Usually, these few days account for about two-thirds of a normal season's damage and about
10%-15% of all hail-days, The total number of hail claims for the six highest days was 1,119 and
accounted for 61.3% of the seasonal total hail claims, about right on our long-term average.
Surprisingly, the percentage wasn't higher considering that just two days provided over 44% of
the yearly claims,

What seems to be a suggested effect of assigned numbers of planes, at least 6, is that it
appears this may be the minimum level of aircraft needed to produce a significant decrease in
hail in a seasonal worst-storm day scenario. With fewer aircraft, one-day hail damage claims
tends to rise significantly. Despite the relatively high damage done on May 27th, this year, the
worst one-day damage of this season ranks in the lawest 30% of all similar days of the past 17
seasons.

As a reminder, we wish make it known that using hail-claim damage numbers need to be
done with caution; these data have limitations, Their suggestion of effects over the years have
helped us steer upgrades to our program and have proven to have a utility, at least it's been a lot
better than reading Tea leaves, lacking other means of making evaluations,

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