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<br />Bob Glancv, National Weather Service, Short Term Weather Forecast <br />Mr. Glancy began his presentation by showing some scenes from the tornado last week in Elbert <br />County. He stated this is the official start of the tornado season in Colorado. The recent tornado <br />recorded winds in the150-160 mile an hour range. <br /> <br />Today's forecast is for stable weather here and with more severe weather for Elbert and Lincoln <br />counties. Here and in northeast Colorado it will be better for thunderstorms. It will be dry here <br />Wednesday and Friday with late winds. We will have a typical May weekend. <br /> <br />The 14-day forecast calls for precipitation to be near normal with below nonnal temperatures <br />possible. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter, NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, Long Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter mentioned that the soil moisture forecast shows mostly dry. June might be wann and <br />dry and July through September predictions show a hint of moisture and cooler temperatures, so <br />El Nino is still possible. Mr. Wolter said this April was not as wet as April 1999, and that March <br />will not have the same drought impacts as 2002; but we are not getting back to nonnal. He is <br />concerned we will have another hot summer this year, and he doesn't agree with the cooler air <br />forecast. Mr. Wolter said it all appears uncertain, and we can only hope for a normal summer. <br /> <br />The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br /> <br />Ex.c.cuLi \/e SU1Tunary (I\~1ay 14~ 20(4) <br /> <br />1. The most recent El Nino event - declared over last June - tried to make a comeback last fall, <br />but has been 'clinically dead' for some time now. Near-neutral ENSO conditions remain the <br />safest bet for the next few months, with dwindling hope remaining for a resurgent El Nino later <br />this year. <br /> <br />2. After a disappointing March that produced early snowmelt in elevations below about 9,000 <br />ft., and reducing the snowpack during a time of year when it should be growing the fastest, April <br />tried to make up for it. This appears to have benefited the Front Range, the Sangre de Cristos, <br />and the San Juans the most, with Summit County (and parts of the northeastern plains) receiving <br />the least moisture. Despite some resemblance of March 2004 with April 2002, this does not look <br />like a repeat of that extreme spring. On the other hand, April 2004 does not quite measure up to <br />the moisture totals received in April 1999. Furthennore, May has fallen behind again in the <br />moisture department, despite one good stonn during the past few days. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our <br />south, both in Arizona as well as eastern New Mexico. Near-nonnal moisture may be the best <br />we can hope for this summer. If this comes coupled with yet another hot summer, drought <br />conditions may worsen yet again. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: The roller-coaster ride of alternating wet and dry spells for Colorado will <br />continue into the foreseeable future. Unitl the tropical Pacific "makes up its mind" whether to <br />slide into El Nino or La Nina, less predictable shorter-term variability will dominate the picture, <br />leading to volatile climate forecasts and increased uncertainty. <br />