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<br />6. Executive summary (updated on July <br /> <br />27th, 2004) <br /> <br />1. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over more than a year ago - tried to <br />make a comeback in late '03, but lapsed back into near-neutral conditions by <br />early '04. Over the last two months, the tropical Pacific has warmed yet again, <br />and another EI Nino event appears possible later this year. The odds for this to <br />happen are better than last year. <br />2. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, dry Mayl, June continued our roller- <br />coaster ride by dropping prodigious amounts of moisture from southeastern <br />Colorado into parts of the Front Range, while leaving the western third of the <br />state drier than normal. July appears to repeat June' rainfall patterns over <br />Colorado, with above-normal rainfall along and east of the divide, and below- <br />normal moisture over Western Colorado. Compared to the last six summers, this <br />one has been cooler so far as well, consistent with its wetness. <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored <br />regions remain to our south, both in Arizona as well as especially over eastern <br />New Mexico. A first look at the fall season (October-December) continues a <br />comparatively wet trend for Arizona, while leaving both southern Utah and <br />northeastern Colorado with a higher than average chance of dry conditions. <br />4. Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may allow for the <br />return of EI Nino later this year. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain <br />weak over much of the Colorado for the foreseeable future. If EI Nino were to <br />gain sufficient srtength this fall, most of Colorado would improve its odds for <br />above-normal moisture for the remainder of 2004. <br />