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<br />Roger Pielke. State Climatologist <br />Mr. Pielke discussed precipitation in some of the climate station divisions. He chose <br />those divisions with the longest period of record and least disturbed record. Taylor Park <br />was slightly above average. Grand Lake, Colburn, and Grand Junction all had average <br />precipitation in December as well as many others. Precipitation in the Denver Metro area <br />was the driest area in December. Last year was Pueblo's driest water year as well as the <br />Denver Metro area being at it's driest. Last year we had above average temperatures and <br />mostly mixed precipitation and temperatures. A few areas had good snows. The SPI <br />showed dry conditions. The Front Range and the eastern plains had the worst and driest <br />records for the year. If we have average precipitation this year, it won't get us out of the <br />drought; above average precipitation won't get us out; we need to plan for another dry <br />year. <br /> <br />Mr. Pielke has been working with the Natural Resource Lab at CSU to determine how <br />much moisture is needed to recharge the soil. The runoffthis spring will be less because <br />of the dry vegetation remaining. If we have another hot, dry, Spring and Summer, next <br />year will be worse than last year. We won't come out of the drought, and we should plan <br />on this kind oflong-term drought. <br /> <br />Bob Glancv. National Weather Service. Short Term Weather Forecast <br />Mr. Glancy said the short term forecast has suffered during the last months and that <br />Colorado should not expect any major snowstorms within the next week, although there <br />should be sporadic snowfall in the mountains with as much as one to three inches in the <br />northern mountains during this time period. The eastern plains are not likely to see any <br />snow during the next week and will continue to see mostly dry cold conditions. During <br />the first week of February, an upper ridge will try to reestablish itself and another surge <br />of cold air will spill into the plains. Mr. Glancy did not expect any major winter storms <br />either in the mountains or on the plains. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. Long Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />1. El Nino has stabilized at moderate levels after last month's dropoff, still too early to <br />tell whether this is temporary or not. Moderate El Nino conditions are expected to <br />continue at least into early spring. <br /> <br />2. Historically, EI Nino has been associated with wetter than average conditions for <br />November, March, and May in Colorado, often translating into decent early season skiing <br />conditions (CHECK!), as well as a prolonged wet spring. These relationships are <br />strongest over the plains of eastern Colorado, and weakest for the highest elevations of <br />the north-central mountains. Unfortunately, reduced snowfall over the north-central <br />mountains during December-February is common under El Nino as well, so the last five <br />months have evolved pretty much as expected, if a little bit on the low end for much of <br />southern Colorado. Unless we get a lucky break in February, the mountains should <br />remain on the dry side until March, while the eastern plains have better prospects of <br />getting "wet" next month. <br />