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<br />Mr. Pielke commented streamflows had a lot of variation across the state. Percentages ranged <br />from 400% to 11 % of average. He said it was basically dry in the southwest, and the very <br />eastern part of the state was wet, while the southwestern part is well below average. <br /> <br />For the SPI, Mr. Pielke mentioned, the southeastern part shows positive values. The 12-month <br />SPI shows a dry period. The 48-month SPI shows a decline in the southwestern part of the state. <br />The projected 6-12 month SPI again shows the northeastern part of the state dryer than average. <br /> <br />Mr. Pielke stated that the Drought Monitor Index shows Colorado as being in one of the better <br />conditions of the western states. He said this is very valuable information, but he wants to <br />propose an index to identify specific resources for Colorado individuals and municipalities and <br />ask them how they are impacted in terms of water resources--from major to minor impacts, etc. <br />Mr. Pielke added that the San Luis Valley is almost always in a drought and that it rained too late <br />there for some crops this year. <br /> <br />Bob Glancy, National Weather Service, Short Term Weather Forecast <br />Mr. Glancy reported this time of year we could get some big floods with the end of July and first <br />week of August having an increased potential for flooding. He commented that the burn areas <br />have had problems, and some of western Adams county elementary schools have had property <br />damage. Mr. Glancy mentioned there have been more flash-flood warnings this year than the <br />last five years. <br /> <br />Mr. Glancy predicted the next two weeks will have some storms, but not the huge floods, and <br />there will be some scattered thunderstonns this week. Sunday and Monday next week there will <br />be warmer temperatures and dryer conditions. <br /> <br />The 8-10 day forecast is leaning toward above normal temperatures and mayor not be above <br />nonnal precipitation. <br /> <br />Mr. Glancy said, all and all, there will be a better chance this week for rain and next week for <br />hotter temperatures. He added there was not an extreme fire danger in the state at this time. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter, NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, Long Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter stated that this was the first in seven years that we are having a cool summer. He <br />said this summer has been the coolest and had the most moisture since 1997. Mr. Wolter said his <br />2002 fall forecast, and the spring and summer 2003 forecast worked. He stated the fall season is <br />often the hardest to predict. Mr. Wolter believes that an EI Nino may start to return this fall. He <br />reported the July-September CDC forecasts the odds better this year for EI Nino than last year. <br />Mr. Wolter added eastern Colorado and the San Juans are very wet, and August could be hot. He <br />also mentioned there is a chance for increased mid-winter precipitation for Colorado. <br /> <br />The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br /> <br />Executi'\/c SUHlula.ry (Jul:l 2'7~ 20(4) <br /> <br />1. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over more than a year ago - tried to make a <br />comeback in late '03, but lapsed back into near-neutral conditions by early '04. Over the <br />last two months, the tropical Pacific has warmed yet again, and another EI Nino event <br />appears possible later this year. The odds for this to happen are better than last year. <br />