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WATFSummarySept2003
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WATFSummarySept2003
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Last modified
7/10/2023 4:55:58 PM
Creation date
9/30/2006 10:28:59 AM
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Drought Mitigation
Title
Task Force Meeting Minutes
Date
9/24/2003
Description
Minutes
Basin
Statewide
Drought Mitigation - Doc Type
WATF Meeting Summary
Document Relationships
ClimateUpdateSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
LongTermOutlookSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
NRCSSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
ShortTermOutlookSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
SWSIReportSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
WATFAgendaSept2003
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
WildlifeUpdateSept2003
(Attachment)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
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<br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diae:nostic Center. Lone: Term Weather Outlook <br /> <br />Mr. Wolter said that the outlook going into winter appears that the eastern plains may be dry for <br />the next six months, and that next year is uncertain at this time. Colorado will not get much <br />rainfall and the soil moisture from October through December looks to remain dry. January <br />through March 2004 could be wet in northeast Colorado. Mr. Wolter mentioned that we can't be <br />assured that the drought is over. <br /> <br />The following executive summAry from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: <br /> <br />Executive summary (24 September 2003) <br /> <br />1. As of today, the most recent EI Nino event - declared over in June - is trying to make <br />a comeback. Near-neutral conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I <br />would not be surprised to see EI Nino return by next spring. Therefore, back-to-back EI <br />Nino years are still possible, and with it the hope for another wet spring. <br />2. If it had not been for this year's wet spring, forest fires would have been a bigger <br />factor in Colorado this summer, due to a very hot and dry July. After a slow start, the <br />monsoon has delivered close to normal rainfall in Colorado, while skipping over most of <br />New Mexico, contrary to expectations. September has been cooler than normal, and the <br />San Juans have received the most rain, where moisture was most needed. <br />3. Recent experimental forecasts for October through December 2003 advertise below- <br />normal precipitation for most of the forecast domain, in particular New Mexico, while <br />northern Colorado shows no strong tilt of the odds. A first outlook into early next year <br />(January-March 2004) gives more reason for concern south and west of Colorado, while <br />northeast Colorado features a modest tilt of the odds towards a wet winter. <br />4. Bottomline: The hot summer of 2003 has erased some of the gains made through a <br />wet spring in much of Colorado. Nevertheless, our state is in much better shape than <br />twelve months ago. For the upcoming Fall 2003, my forecast is on the dry side for most <br />regions south of northern Colorado, but "on the fence" for the Front Range. Early next <br />year, there is a good chance for at least near-normal precipitation over most of <br />Colorado, while New Mexico and Arizona appear to be stuck in a dry regime through the <br />upcoming Winter. I aim to update this forecast by late November 2003. <br />
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