Laserfiche WebLink
<br />- Is the Western Slope supposed to get anything? <br /> <br />Bob - They're getting some showers, but we're going to benefit on our Front Range foothills with <br />the precipitation. The mountains aren't getting as much of the precipitation as the foothills, <br />because we're combining that upslope component to give the foothills the precipitation. So yes, <br />there's some, but it's not a lot. And the track of the low will favor northern Colorado as opposed <br />to southern Colorado. <br /> <br />Klaus - Presented the "Executive Summary" in lieu of transcription. <br /> <br />Executive SummAry <br /> <br />1. El Nino has made it through a weak spell last month, but is now poised for recovery and <br />growth in the immediate future. Westerly wind anomalies over much of the tropical Pacific <br />are associated with an eastward moving "MJO" (Madden-Julian-Oscillation) that has recently <br />entered the Pacific Basin. A few months ago, an MJO was responsible for the onset ofEl Nino <br />conditions in the eastern Pacific, and the current event may very well hold the key to taking El <br />Nino to a higher level. <br /> <br />2. Historically, even modest El Nino conditions have been associated with wetter than average <br />conditions for the summer months in Colorado and several adjacent states. I am now more <br />confident than in previous months that this El Nino will be around through the summer, and at <br />a big enough size to have an impact. <br /> <br />3. The latest experimental forecasts for July through September continue a better than 50/50 <br />chance for wetness in eastern Colorado, compared to unknown odds for the westernmost <br />regions. These forecasts are based on a variety of influences on our climate, with El Nino <br />being just one of several indicators that look favorable for later this summer. The one factor <br />that continues to decrease my confidence in this forecast is the historic tendency of drought <br />conditions to perpetuate themselves. <br /> <br />4. Recent storms and cool, damp weather were beneficial in northeastern Colorado in terms of <br />fire danger, and in terms of reducing drought impacts. On average, May through July is the <br />wettest season in Northeast Colorado and Southern Wyoming. As such, a wetter than average <br />period would go a long way towards reducing drought impacts in this region. From Arizona <br />into the San Juans and Southern Utah, where April-June is the driest time ofthe year, only the <br />subsequent monsoon season will be able to reduce current extreme drought conditions. <br /> <br />5. Bottom line: I continue to believe that the odds for an above-average monsoon season are <br />close to 60% for eastern Colorado and New Mexico, while Arizona and Western Colorado <br />face a more uncertain monsoon season. Compared to last month, the "wet" forecasts have <br />firmed up somewhat, but the lingering drought situation cautions against too much confidence. <br /> <br />Brad - Thanks, Klaus. The next segment here is the Impact Task Force Reconnendation. And <br />what I am hoping to do is do a roundtable with the Impact Task Force Chairs each discussing what <br />your Impact Task Force has been up to, and where we are as fare as implementing the <br /> <br />25 <br />