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<br />... In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our south, both in <br />Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico. These forecasts match soil moisture-based stalistieal forecasts <br />issued at the Climate Prediction Center. <br />.... Bottomline: Recent wamling in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La <br />Nina, jusllike it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable El Nino event later this <br />year remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the <br />recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought conditions may worsen yel again, even if we receive average <br />rainfall. <br /> <br />Colorado Climate Center (CCC) - ~olan Doesken <br />The CCC t1rought data and presentation can be found on the web at !:!!!p://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Mr. Doesken Made <br />the point that potential flooding should deserve some attention. His historical perspective was: 140 years ago we were <br />cleaning up l100d damages, 128 years ago there was major 1100d damages in Denver, I 10 year ago in Boulder there <br />were big flood. 100 years ago in <br />Fort Colllns there were Iloods, 83 <br />years ago we were doing clean up <br />in Pueblo from 1100ds, 69 years <br />ago there was l100ding on the <br />Republican River, 49 years ago <br />there was 1100d damages from <br />Iluerfano to Pueblo counties to <br />Las Animas counties. Larry Lang <br />pointed out that in tOOay's dollars <br />there would $2 billion in flood <br />damages if we had another 1965 <br />1100d. Nolan continued with 23 <br />years ago there was an incredible <br />1100d on Frijole Creek with 16" <br />of rain in four hours. Nolan <br />finished with the fact Ihal only <br />five years ago we were cleaning <br />up 1100d damages on Fountain <br />Creek in EI Paso and !)ueblo <br />Counties. <br /> <br />Generally speaking, slonns that <br />occur later in July and August tend to stop moving and stall a bit and hang around. This time of year they keep <br />moving. From the drought perspective: the slream flows arc lower and Ihe snow is pretty much gone, but the system is <br />not recharged. We are better than 2002 and two years later it's still not every good. In April we take a look back and <br />say "thank you the moisture was '....onderful... <br /> <br />Impact Task Force Reports <br />;\lunicipal Water Task Force Barry Cress 4 conditions arc the same as last time restrictions went into place. We are <br />working with six projects around the state thai arc mostly plumbing and water quality. Things like circulation lines <br />and install water meters. The Pinewood District will get a loan from the cwes to obtain belter water rights. <br />Bob Stegner, Denver \Vater - reservoirs are about 81% of full for Denver ''''ater and customers are using 27% less <br />water in ~1ay than in previous years. <br /> <br />N'ext .\Ieeting <br />The next meeting was tentatively set for July 20th and that coincides with the next C\VCB Board ;\keting in Delta, <br />Colorado. The Water Availability Task Force Chair, Brad Lundahl. will pick a new dale and location. All of the <br />interested parties will be notified via email. The Flood Task Force will only meet again in the event of significanl <br />1100ding in Colorado this summer. In the event of l100ding the e\VeB will coordinate slate, federal 1100d programs to <br />assist in documentation. recovery. and floodplain mapping operations. <br /> <br />6 <br />