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far making for a not so gradual melt out. The runoff graphs are plunging out quickly. Looking at the Colorado River gage near the state line. 200~ is better than 2002 but still is 20-30% of nonnal. The website has a new graph that is the composite of 110 real time graphs shows conditions ofa statewide basis. ~OAA - CDC Gary Rates (filling: in for Klaus Wolter) If you average all of the model runs the forecasts arc to be above normal precipitation. There is a lull coming up in late June. Most of the models show that this active period ,vill continue into next week. The Driest part of summer is typically the end of June and early July. The maps showed sea surface temperature anomalies that are small. But there is a cold pool next to South America. We have seen some expansion of the warm poollhat is leading to wamlish neutral conditions. In 2002, this was the beginning that developed into a moderate EI Nino. The recent one was like the 10th in size. Some indicators point out that it is unlikely that we will get another EI Nino building. ..\~"'l"l""..---\ I;r-....~-.l;--.l ere's la~t forecast indicates increaH'tJ chances [or a warlller-than-norfllal ~Ullllllcr across much o["'estern U.S. /' Klaus Wolter's most recent forecast stated that "recent wanning in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La Nii\a.just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable EI Nino event later this year remains uncertain. J\kanwhile. tilts in the precipitation -" . .., odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the lE"PEFtIlTU~E OU1LOO'~ . ~ ' I. ~ ItO LL S[IlS0NIlL '5.~Pr.,~~~:~ recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought ~~~W 2~R~Il~O~~O~ : ~~::; ::::., . conditions may worsen yet again. cven if we receive .120 ---ltO__' -tOO ----'"to~r".. "':.':'111 average rainfall." Then: were many temperature departures from average. Most of the Western U.S. is in this boat. Tcmperature forel:asts in July are based on trends and show wann summers, over large precipitation forecasts. The EC stands for equal chances of wet or dry. The weather forecast skill is lowest this time of year. Soil moisture forecasts. and the new precipitation forecast have it drier for Colorado and the Southwest U.S. The skill or conlidence in soil moisture levels is bcller in the Midwest and farther east in the U.S. than in Colorado. ~tr. Wolter's new forecast favors wetness in eastern New Mexico. Klau~ Woltcr Exccuti\'C Summary - Junc II. 200-1 Percent of Normal Precipitation (%) 4/1/2004 - 6/12/2004 ~, ~, ~ '" '" '" " " " , . The most recent EI ;\iflo event. declared over a year ago - tried to make a comeback last fall. but has been 'clinically dead' for most of 2~. ?\ear-nelltral Ei\'SQ conditions remain the safest bel for the next fcw months. with some hope remaining for a resurgent EI i\:ii\o later this year. .. Aller a mixed spring (dry ~1arch. wet April. and dry ~Iay). June has left much of Colorado drier than normal for the month so far. A few notable exceptions received excessive precipitation amounts in the fonn of damaging hail stonns. We are now drifting mto the so-called "mini-dry season" from mid-June until early July that is often associated with the honest temperatures ofIhe year, and reduced rainfall odds ahead of the monsoon later this sunUllCr. , 5