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Mr. Benz also believes that we need to find a way to anticipate when \ve will see that six-month wet winter. He also would like us to answer the question, "Can we have a multi year E] Nino?" We need to study EI Nino and we need good numbers and decision-making lools and research meteorologists haven't given us those answers yet. Significant 1100d years were in 1904, 1935, 1965, and 1977. These were on the tail end of]ong drought periods. It could happen in the next year or two. HDR Engineering has been working on the F]ood Study on South Boulder Creek and studying the meteorology of severe storms. lie found that a hurricane in Caribbean came up the eastern spine of the Rockies in September of 1938. In September 1938 a 2.9 inch rain wiped out ;\torrison. EI Dorado Springs got it as wel]. A nine or ten inch stoml in WalerDale (east of Fort Collins) was significant as well. He thinks we should look at the Bill Gray hurricane forecasts that we are going to see this late in the fall. Frank McNulty stated thaI when we use the lasl 100 years of data perhaps whal we have is not that new. The question is how do we deal with it. co mingle climate with water supply issues, the question is how do we deal wilh the water supply issues. ~'n.cs Snuw SurH~' - ~Iik(' Gillespie The graph shows the May 1'1 snow paek and we had just came out of wel April. The snow pack in lower south central was above nornlal. May was a dry month, 37% of average at SNOTEL sites in the states for that month. The southwest was the driest for that period. June 101 snow pack rapidly began to melt out. llle snow pack is melting out earlier than in 2001 and 2003 but nOI as early as 2002. Reservoir stomge is 85% of average state\vide, the Gunnison is 109% of average, Rio Grunde and Arkansas Basins are very low. Southwest basins are 98% of nonna] reservoir storage and that may be from the early snow-melt out. The trend is a slow gradual recovery from drought and il is not a good idea to make a forecast early in the year Reservoir Storage Junf'I,2004 ("'/ --""" ~--~ Snowpack May " 2004 ~NRCS -- "'"""'...... '1- , " . " ,~. rr..,,~ '~..H ""..<(., .-:1,".-- -' .'TS~""'~,",;q! .t)o.,~..,,~_ ."O'l:1'l1."A'''~ .lIlIl~"'~'.lrQf .rD.~""A''''"", .~'6","A..."", .'~""'A_~ D'IOI8""""~ ~.'i,"e...._..... ..................._6,....... sr__'S...otA".,~ 'l~".oILoAY.M - Statewide: 68% of Av~! Snowpack June '. 2004 ~ NRCS Streamflow Forecasts June I. 2004 ~NRCS -- -...... -.- -- -- ..,-~- .,1II.,_......... ."...;"'...,..... .1lI-,....~....... .It.""~"""'l* ........~.- .._~...... 0.....-.. ...................- ..........--.. -- - Statewide: 21"10 of Average 6~" of Last Year ."SO""'~'''JgO .1JQ'1~"'A'''' ."O.ll'i'1o..A.... .5IlI.Hl......-A.."l'O . '0. H" of A....... .~.II..IlIA._ .'~"of~.... D"<Il~"""'O<l "'"""'.....--... .....................8.......... 3