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<br />of opportunity. The invasion of Europe to start WWII hinged on his weather forecast. Mr. I.undahl used this <br />historical example to illustrate the importance of weather forecasting in water manager activities. <br /> <br />:\'OAA-I'iational Weather Sen:ice (Boulder) - Treste lIuse (Senior hldrolo~ist) <br />i\.ls. Huse showed satellite image from the morning. She observed that the fire danger class has more fire danger now. <br />Its beller than 2002 but recent warm weather has Colorado gelling to more dangerous ]evels. Currently there is a <br />trough over the west coast. We could get some thunderstorms out of this system. We will get a cold front moving <br />through with light a drizzle. This is more like an April or May pattern not so much in June. This meant that we are <br />gelling the jet stream a little further south and that should produce some increased moisture in Colorado. There is a <br />fairly active pattern with a 100v-pressure trough. We could see a Denver cyclone and thunderstorms over the Palmer <br />Divide on Thursday and in the Front Range and Denver Metro Area. Friday af'temoon a second cold front moves <br />through with cooler temperatures and cold air coming down. We could get some gulf moisture in the beginning of <br />July. The best precipitation will be on the eastern slopes and eastern plains next week. <br /> <br />Summer Precipitation Outlook IIDR Engineering-John Uenz <br />John Benz mentioned a recent instability in the weather. During the last ten years he has work with the Flood Task <br />Force. He is tasked to speculate what will happen in the summer. In Leena Gulchjust south of Golden. Colorado we <br />had 2.5 inches in a just 30 minutes that <br />equates to rain rates a 5 inches per hour. <br />There are signs and messages in the <br />atmosphere ofunstab]e weather pallems. We <br />are living in interesting times, searching for <br />water on Mars and finding it. We arc finding <br />and ozone holes on Saturn. Mr. Benz made <br />reference to a recent Chips Barry quote in the <br />newspaper. '" wish we could get back to <br />normal. whate..'er that is'!" In answering <br />Chips question in tenns of temperature. June <br />is a bit wamler and July and August are 2 <br />degrees warmer over the last ten years (1994- <br />2003). In looking at the number of days <br />above 90 degrees from 1994 to 2003. it <br />appears that we have picked up a lot ofheal. <br />It has been very \....arm in the summer season. <br />There have been 63 days abo....e 90 degrees <br />more than nornml for the period of 2000- <br />2003. In the last few years we have had many more days than normal. That is why the last four years have been so <br />diflicult for the Drought Task Force. When you look all the way back to the 1870s at observed temperatuTCs. we have <br />had more 90~degree days in the 2000-2003 period than any other time in the last lOa years. There have not been a lot <br />of stonos in this recent hot period. <br /> <br />........_f1_.._t_....__,___~....._. <br /> <br />. .............~...~..--.~..~_. ,_-"1 <br /> <br />NOle: H Nino perioJs are ~ial"" with wCllcr than a"cragc weather in pans o{Coloradu <br /> <br />Experimental forecasts 1980 through 2010 show an index oftempcrature anomalies in the Pacil1c. For the last four or <br />fi..'e years we really haven't had one. It is \vanner than nornml but not a rea] E] Nino. The Yampaf\Vhite watershed <br />are tinder box dry and of higher forest tire danger. MT. lIenz believes that the southwest will not be the high fire <br />danger area this year. The North Park and 1.70 corridor will be more likely to have high danger. He thinks it should <br />be an average monsoon season. but it may not be enough to top off the reservoirs. This monsoon season will not <br />penetrate into northern Rockies like we would like it. We will have an average July. lea....ing the hot dry spells behind <br />u" <br /> <br />To finish his presentation i\fr. f1enz made the observations about neighboring states and reservoirs like Lake <br />McCounahey and Lake Mead slowly drying up. He observed Ihat we have had a few good wet months in recent <br />winters but \ve need a wet six-month winter to help recover. 'Ole big reser....oirs arc drying up slowly. \Vhen it comes <br />to Lake i\lcad, we arc getting close to emergency leve]s. This entails dragging boats across sand to get at waler. <br /> <br />2 <br />