WATFSummarySept2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

Bob Glancv, National Weather Service, Short Term Weather Forecast Mr. Glancy stated there is moisture in the Front Range and Arkansas Basin, but not on the Western slope. His forecast for mid-day today is for snow advisories in the mountains in Colorado with up to eight inches of snow. Mr. Glancy also predicted mixed rains and snows in the metro area tonight with lows from the low to mid thirties. He mentioned there would be precipitation throughout the night, and that it would be cooler and damp the next two days. Mr. Glancy reported that Thursday morning would dry out, and we would be back to the sixties and just cooler in the mountains; Friday morning would be warmer with seasonal temperatures and dry through the weekend. The 8-14 day forecast is for warmer temperatures and above to nonnal precipitation with better precipitation in the southeastern part of Colorado. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, Long Term Weather Outlook Mr. Wolter said a new El Nino event has occurred, but that it is weaker than the one of 2002. He stated that if the El Nino continued to grow, Colorado could get above average moisture in the latter part of 2004 and next spring. Mr. Wolter said the first two-thirds of this September have been dry, making it dryer than nonnal unless we get another storm next week to make up the difference. Mr. Wolter predicted that from October through December it would be wet in the northeast, dry in the southeast to the middle of Colorado; and, for January through March, he predicted a nonnal winter for northeast Colorado. He commented we have been having much mixed weather, because last March was dry, April was wet, and May was dry. Mr. Wolter mentioned that eastern Colorado has been wet and colder this year, and also said the rains have helped western Colorado. The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes: Execut1\iC Surnrnary 21 Septernber 2004 L The 2002-03 El Nino event ended more than a year ago. Over the last four months, the tropical Pacific has wanned yet again, and a fledgling new El Nino event has indeed developed. The current event will probably stay weaker than the one two years ago. 2. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, dry May), our summer ended up being quite wet and cool in the EASTERN half of Colorado, while drought conditions continued west of here, in particular near the Four Corners region. September rains have mitigated this situation somewhat over western Colorado. 3. In my experimental forecasts for Oct-Dec '04, better-than-average odds for a wet season are confined to Arizona and northeast Colorado, while east-central and southeastern CO are under a modest threat of a dry falL For Jan-Mar '05, the odds for a wet season reach significant levels in AZ, while the reverse odds (for dry) peak over northern Utah. Both NE CO and E NM feature increased odds of near-normal precipitation in late winter.