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<br />Average Heidke Skill scores for AMJ and JAS 2000-2004 (truly <br />independent verification period from training periods) <br /> <br />EXPERIMENTAL CDC FORECAST SKill <br />FOR AMJ PRECIPITATION FORECASTS <br />(issued in March 2000 - 2004) <br /> <br />.c.so <br /> <br /><<l.2S <br />... <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />+ <br /> <br /> <br /><<l.2S <br /> <br />",.so <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />00 <br /> <br />.... <br />"'.25 <br /> <br />+ <br /> <br />EXPERIMENTAL CDC FORECAST SKill <br />FOR JAS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS <br />(issued in March 2000 - 2004) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />00 <br /> <br />=00 <br /> <br />0.25 <br /> <br />Real-world skill is pretty good for most of my spring forecasts issued in March (and <br />April), while summer forecasts are in general pretty lousy this far out (they do get better <br />- that is better than chance, and better than epe forecasts as one gets closer to the <br />summer), <br />