Laserfiche WebLink
<br />Executive Summary (21 September 2004) <br /> <br />I. The 2002-03 El Nino event ended more than a year ago. Over the last four months, the <br />tropical Pacific has warmed yet again, and a fledgling new El Nino event has indeed <br />developed. The current event will probably stay weaker than the one two years ago. <br /> <br />2. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, dry May), our summer ended up being quite <br />wet and cool in the EASTERN half of Colorado, while drought conditions continued <br />west of here, in particular near the Four Comers region. September rains have mitigated <br />this situation somewhat over western Colorado. <br /> <br />3. In my experimental forecasts for Oct-Dec '04, better-than-average odds for a wet season <br />are confined to Arizona and northeast Colorado, while east-central and southeastern CO <br />are under a modest threat of a dry fall. For lan-Mar '05, the odds for a wet season reach <br />significant levels in AZ, while the reverse odds (for dry) peak over northern Utah. Both <br />NE CO and E NM feature increased odds of near-normal precipitation in late winter. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific has allowed for the return <br />of EI Nino conditions. In the foreseeable future, tilts in the precipitation odds remain <br />weak over much of Colorado. If EI Nino were to continue to grow this fall, most of <br />Colorado would improve its odds for above-normal moisture for the remainder of2004, <br />and for next spring in particular. <br />